Hi All. To be socially useful, earthquake predictions have to be quite precise in magnitude, time and place. Useless predictions tend to be overly general, 'predicting' such things as a small earthquake in California 'any day now'. This is somewhat like saying a horse will win the Kentucky Derby!

In order to reduce the risk of an earthquake and reduce and mitigate its effects, it is necessary to predict where and when a future, large earthquake may occur. For example, it would be important to know when such an earthquake will hit, where it will strike, and what the level of its destructiveness may be.

Presently predictions are given in statistical terms. For example, when a prediction is made that: there is a 90% chance that an earthquake will occur in the next 50 years", it does not mean that this earthquake cannot happen tomorrow or it may not be delayed by 50 years. Thus, present predictions are not within a reasonable time frame that can be of usefulness to planners, policy makers, and those in government that deal with public safety.

To understand earthquake prediction, three different time frames have been assigned by scientists: long term, intermediate and short-term predictions.

Long-term prediction involves a time frame of a decade or more and can only be general and with very limited usefulness for public safety. However knowing where large destructive quakes can occur would allow for the building of more earthquake resistant structures.

Intermediate term prediction would fall into a time span of a few weeks to a few years, and again it would not be of great practical usefulness. This could allow for the propositioning of emergency equipment and medical supplies.

It is the short-term prediction, that is specific information on the time and location of an earthquake given within days, weeks, months - not years - that would be useful for any kind of public safety and evacuation.

A lot of people make predictions just so they can have the bragging rights to saying that they predicted an earthquake. The prediction was so general and vague that one could claim a hit for almost any quake.

In order for a prediction to be useful it must have a specific location, a specific time and a specific magnitude. This is the goal of government seismologist around the world. I’ve talked to many seismologists who say it seems like an impossible goal, but it is never the less the goal they seek to accomplish. Take Care…Don in creepy town