Hi All. They say the first thing to go is the memory. Not true. It’s the second thing to go, but I have forgotten what the first was. Anyway I can’t remember if I have posted on this in the past so if I have forgive me for repeating myself.

This is from the WG02 (Working group 02) and it still looks like the Rodgers Creek Fault is at the top of the top 10 faults for having a major quake in the Bay Area. It looks like the little berg of Hollister didn’t even get a honorably mention again.

The USGS, the California Office of Emergency Services, the California Geological Survey, and the Association of Bay Area Governments jointly conducted a loss estimation study focused on the ten most likely damaging earthquakes forecast for the Bay Region by the Working Group. These earthquakes occur on six of the seven major fault systems in the Bay Area and range in size from a magnitude 6.7 event on a blind thrust underlying Mt. Diablo to a magnitude 7.9 repeat of the 1906 rupture on the San Andreas fault in northern California. Their 30-year probabilities range from a high of 15.2% for a M7.0 rupture of the Rodger’s Creek fault to 3.5% for a M7.4 combined rupture of the Peninsula and Santa Cruz Mountains segment of the San Andreas. The ten most likely earthquakes and their 30-year probabilities are:

Rodgers Creek 15.2% 7.0
Northern Calaveras 12.4% 6.8
Southern Hayward (possible repeat of 1868 earthquake) 11.3% 6.7
Northern + Southern Hayward 8.5% 6.9
Mt. Diablo 7.5% 6.7
Green Valley-Concord 6.0% 6.7
San Andreas: Entire N. CA segment (possible repeat of 1906 earthquake) 4.7% 7.9
San Andreas: Peninsula segment (possible repeat of 1838 earthquake) 4.4% 7.2
Northern San Gregorio segment 3.9% 7.2
San Andreas: Peninsula + Santa Cruz segment 3.5% 7.4

The loss estimates were determined using the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s nationally recognized and publicly available earthquake loss estimation model, HAZUS. We used ground-shaking inputs for the scenario events developed using the same methodology employed by the USGS in producing automated, near real-time, web-based ShakeMaps, that depict the degree and distribution of strong shaking following significant quakes in the San Francisco and Los Angeles region. Now we know why USGS wanted to know who felt the shakes and who didn’t.

At any rate if just half of what they say is true we are in for a rough time whenever the quake everyone is waiting for occurs. It will occur, of that there is no doubt. It’s just a matter of when. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• WG02