Hello Dr. Chouliaras,

While timing certain is a large issue, in certain cases such as Loma Prieta it shouldn't have been. One thing we have here that some may not be so fortunate to have, is a geyser in Calistoga that is rather a perfect precursor to large earthquakes. In the Loma Prieta situation as in prior events, it stopped its usual schedule 3 days before the earthquake. Actually there were a few precursors, including a foreshock in August, missing animals, lunar and tidal data to support it, Fraser Smiths ELF signal and an urgence for the area to be monitored as there were supicions in scientific circles that it was going to go. Hardly a suprising earthquake.

But, we learn as we go. That's why today that geyser is monitored 365 days a year by computer telemetry by Dr. Paul Silver of Carnegie. It changes its schedule within 2 1/2 to 3 days prior to 5.6 or greater quakes between 200/300 miles from its location.

However, in the timing issues I wonder how much time does one need? If one were to give a 30 day window and a notice to get your earthquake kits ready, wouldn't that be enough? Why should one have to limit it to 3 days or 10 days for that matter. It beats the, you know, out of the 30 year potential. I'd think the panic issue would be greatly reduced if one said, there is a probability of xyz in 30 days. I seriously doubt you'd find the freeways bumper to bumper with people thinking they might have a whole month to get ready. With them thinking they have 30 years, few are getting ready.

While "quiescence" is a good point, in the size of the potential earthquake being delivered, there is data telling us when the silence is about to be broken. A scientist at UCLA showed me a few bits about when this silence becomes noisy. Not that I didn't know about it before, but he had a rather magical way of demonstrating it for me. It involves plastic silverware and doors.

However, I wish to say I am greatly pleased you are making a valiant effort in this area. Few are like you and for that I am regretful. I hope your enthusiasm like mine, does not wane with the years, with others constantly telling you it's impossible, when everything out there says otherwise. One day, success for sure!

Thanks for responding....Pat