Earthquake and tornado data evaluation program advance?
Posted by EQF on April 28, 2004 at 16:35:18:

I hope that this approach to text formatting works.

Most of this information regarding my Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Program will probably be stored on the following Web page later today.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/303.html

Additional: On April 13, 2004 I detected what I thought were probably several tornado warning signals. And when their times were entered into my new program the top two most likely locations it pointed to were 91W (100 rating) and 83W (95 rating). The next highest rated location, in another part of the world, was a 76. On April 20, 2004 a group of tornados at around 89W reportedly claimed 8 lives and did a lot of damage.

Earthquake Forecasting Program Advance?

One of the reasons that my new forecasting computer program is so powerful in my opinion is the fact that it is relatively easy for people to add new data processing feature. In just the last day I added one myself. And the results look impressive.

The warning signals listed below were detected just before the highly destructive January 26, 2001 earthquake in India.

Original test data
  16       84  79  53  40  87  01/01/26  # 1  1  wrn
  12       35  32   6  81  37  01/01/25  # 2  5  wrn
  12       29  25  89  74  31  01/01/25  # 3  5  wrn
  11       19  15  79  64  21  01/01/25  # 4  6  wrn
  11       10   6  70  55  12  01/01/25  # 5  6  wrn
  11       79  76  48  35  81  01/01/25  # 6  7  wrn
  10       69  66  38  25  70  01/01/25  # 7  6  wrn
  10       58  55  27  12  59  01/01/25  # 8  6  wrn
When I told my program to evaluate those signals using its earthquake database for earthquakes occurring before January 26, 2001 it produced the table listed below which contains a type of probability number (PR). As it can be seen, it did identify one earthquake at 70 east. But it is not given the highest probability.
                                Results sorted by  PROBABILITY
 ang eqlon gl  ml  ci  la  sa   date loc/typ m/s ft PR: lon lat probs / area, country, state, or city
 102  76.  14  82  72  33  77  99/01/25  col 5.8 4 100: -76  4 . 12  6  8 . 70 65100 . 19  4 /         COLOMBIA     1999/01/25  18:19:17 4.29N 75.68W 33 5.8 COLOMBIA
 -30  66.  20  28  88  68  21  99/09/07  gre 5.8 3  92:  24 38 .  0 42 79 . 92 14  1 . 38  9 /           GREECE     1999/09/07 11:56:50  38.13N  23.55E  10.0 5.8Mb A  GREECE
 -81  38.  14  33  25  76  31  98/07/17  png 7.0 4  91: 142 -3 .  1 91 40 . 61 54 10 . 14 16 / PAPUA NEW GUINEA     1998/07/17  08:49:00  3.08S  141.76E  33  7.0
-136  32.  27  51  72  18  65  89/10/18  cal 7.1 2  88:-122 37 .  1 56 88 . 21 15 11 . 19 61 /       CALIFORNIA     1989/10/18  00:04:15 37.03N 121.88W 19.0 7.1 A  SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA usgs list
 122  59.  79  54  37  82  38  99/09/20  tai 7.6 4  87: 121 24 .  9 11  6 .  7  7 79 . 18 87 /           TAIWAN     1999/09/20  17:47:19  23.78N 121.09E  33.0 7.6Ms A  TAIWAN
 169  14.  86  79  42  31  77  93/09/29  ind 6.3 5  78:  76 18 . 13  1  1 . 19 20 78 . 13  4 /            INDIA     1993/09/29  22:25:00  18.07N  76.45E  33.3 6.3   SOUTHERN INDIA
  98  20.  52  30  21  70  28  98/02/04  afg 6.1 4  78:  70 37 .  1 59 74 . 56  8  5 .  9 78 /      AFGHANISTAN     1998/02/04 14:33:00  37.07N  70.07E  33  6.1  Afghanistan
  50  59.  40  25  12  85  43  99/11/12  tur 7.1 3  66:  31 41 .  1 66 54 . 20  8  0 .  8 43 /           TURKEY     1999/11/12 16:57:00  40.79N  31.11E  33.0 7.1Mb A  TURKEY
  58  20.  51  35  24  88  49  98/05/30  afg 6.9 4  63:  70 37 .  0 57 25 . 42  6  2 .  9 63 /      AFGHANISTAN     1998/05/30 06:22:00  37.21N  69.93E  33  6.9  Afghanistan
  67  60.  41  24  12  78  40  99/08/17  tur 7.8 5  63:  30 41 .  1 62 63 . 28  9  0 . 14 47 /           TURKEY     1999/08/17 00:01:38  40.64N  29.83E  10.0 7.8Ms A  TURKEY
-125  89.   4  26  16  83  38  01/01/13  sal 7.6 4  63: -89 13 .  4 36 63 . 11 56  6 .  3  2 /      EL SALVADOR     2001/01/13 17:33:31  12.77N  88.83W  60.0 7.6Mw B  OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
 175  45.  41  40  10  85  40  95/01/16  jpn 6.8 4  32: 135 35 .  1 32  1 .  0  0  5 .  2  1 /            JAPAN     1995/01/16  20:46:00  34.67N 135.00E  33 6.8   KOBE, JAPAN
The newest addition to the program is a table which displays data which were calculated in a different manner. And in this case 70E (+70) has a rating of 100.
  lon probs  Results sorted by earthquake  SINGLE LONGITUDE DEGREE
  -30    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  -45    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  -60    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  -75    0  71   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  45
  -90    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 -105    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 -120    0   0  63   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 -135    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 -150    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 -165    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  180    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  165    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  150    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  65   0   0   0   0   0   0
  135   22   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  61
  120    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  105    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
   90    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  55
   75    0   0   0   0   0 100   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
   60    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
   45    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  47
   30   45   0   0   0   0   0  66   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
   15    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
    0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
  -15    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Without going into detail, what this means is that I believe that if this program had existed on January 25, 2001 it might have been possible to accurately forecast that earthquake and warn people about its approach.

Remember, this is a computer program which is still in its infancy. And there is virtually an unlimited amount of room for advances. You don’t need a laboratory full of equipment. All you really need is a sufficiently powerful computer. And any medium quality personal computer built in the past 10 years would probably work. My database file contains records of more than 20,000 earthquakes and more than 1500 warning signals which people can study. So they they don’t even need to go out and collect any warning signal data themselves if they just want to do some research.

And that is another of the reasons the program has so much potential. It should enable any serious research institution and private researcher around the world to do some advanced earthquake and perhaps tornado forecasting, and also some research. And if and when more and more people begin to generate valuable data our governments should start taking the science of forecasting earthquakes seriously.

One version of the program is already fully operational and downloadable from my Web site. So all that is needed at this time are interested researchers.

These are personal opinions.

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake and tornado data evaluation program advance? - EQF  16:42:33 - 4/28/2004  (21636)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake and tornado data evaluation program advance? - EQF  23:33:08 - 4/28/2004  (21639)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake and tornado data evaluation program advance? - EQF  23:36:47 - 4/28/2004  (21641)  (1)
              ● SHOCKING earthquake triggering data - EQF  20:12:33 - 4/30/2004  (21660)  (0)