Roger-as Don just posted, neither were close on location or magnitude. But, while you have to call them official "misses", for the larger magnitude quakes (not 2.5, for example), I'm willing to allow some leeway. The real question is how many M5 quakes this region has been having the last year, and how many predictions does Shan make (etc...). I find the method inplausible (sp?) except possibly for immediately adjacent quakes.