Re: Note To Roger
Posted by Todd on January 11, 2004 at 12:24:24:

Petra,

Don't be so sensitive, this board is as objective as they come. Furthermore, I'd like to commend you on a recent prediction you made for a 5+ quake in Baja, CA. Had that quake occured, I would have known for sure how on these tones you are. Infact, there was a 5+ quake on the Mexican coast across Baja, CA w/in the window....makes you wonder.

But from what I noticed is you often make advisories for very small quakes in prone areas. And the statistics for these quakes are high...

For example, I live in LA and have noticed for the past 3 years that about every month, possibly twice a month we get a micro quake in the Century City/WEstwood/Culver City area. Therefore I could say right now I have a tone in my right ear for 1-3 range quake in Century City for the next week. THere is probably a 1/3 chance I will get a hit.

What Chris said wasn't meant to step on your toes. I remember since I was in the 7th grade on, any science class I took that is what was drummed into us...expect others to be able to use your same method and get the same results to prove or disprove a hypothesis. Well when you are the only one hearing a tone for a small quake in a seismically active area, it is difficult for others to prove/disprove this.

The next time you predict for a quake that is 5+ I will take notice, and should you fail, I will always pay attention. The statistics become very slim at that point when you hit those magnitudes no matter what the location.