Chris;

I tested both catalogs and found they were incomplete below 4.5 or so.

Then I tested Shan's predictions for quakes larger than that.

Using Alan Jones' asymptotic normal test gives me a 1.8, about 97% significant. Using Pavel's G test I get 3.5 which is WAY high. But grouping and using chi-square I get 4.7 with 5 degrees of freedom which is barely above 50%.

Since he was only right on 26 of the 114 above 4.5 I tend to believe the chi-square but I have no defensible way to decide.

Roger