The Gravity Point
Posted by EQF on January 10, 2004 at 10:02:08:

This is intended as a type of introduction to my updated Web pages which I am hoping will be ready for view some time later today. There will probably be a few arguments about them. And I would rather they got started now so that they won't interfere with later discussions.

Earthquake triggering time windows which people often study are fairly long. They may be active over weeks, years, or even decades. The time windows that I myself mainly work with last only about 5 minutes out of roughly 6.25 hour periods of time. And all of the earthquake triggering and precursor signal generation processes can be regarded as taking place in just those 5 minutes.

My research and my forecasts cannot presently be evaluated using statistical methods etc. largely for two reasons:

1. The computer programs which are needed to generate the necessary data do not yet exist. I have preliminary versions of them running on my own computer. But I look at just one earthquake at a time. And it is really necessary to do that for large numbers of earthquakes at once.

2. There is presently no good geophysical model to explain these data. When doing evaluations you are generally attempting to test some theory. But there are none for these data at the moment.

What I usually focus on with my earthquake research and forecasting work is something I call the "Gravity Point." It is the location on the Earth's surface where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are strongest. And generally speaking, for my own work it also represents 3 other locations. They are 90 longitude degrees on either side of the original location and on the opposite side of the Earth from it.

The Gravity Point is not a distinct location like as sublunar or subsolar points are. You can adjust the calculations and the Gravity Point will have different latitudes and longitudes. And the data evaluation procedures which rely on those values still work if you are consistent with how you do the calculations.

What that means is that you cannot easily propose a geophysical model for what the Gravity Point actually represents and why it is so important to earthquake triggering and earthquake precursor signal generation as it does not yet have a specific, unchangeable location which you can use in order to formulate clear geophysical theories.

The reason that the Gravity Point is so important is the fact that when you generate latitude and longitude values for it, those numbers can be compared with similar numbers for other earthquakes and for certain types of precursor signals. And that enables you to tell that two earthquakes were triggered in the same manner and that some precursor is pointing to an approaching earthquake which is going to occur at a specific location.

It works. I have gotten some spectacular results with telling where expected earthquakes were going to occur.

These are personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Web site is finally ready - EQF  14:17:12 - 1/11/2004  (21061)  (1)
        ● Earthquake triggering theory question - EQF  04:00:27 - 1/12/2004  (21064)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake triggering theory question - Don in Hollister  14:44:03 - 1/12/2004  (21065)  (1)
              ● Re: Earthquake triggering theory question - EQF  19:24:12 - 1/12/2004  (21068)  (1)
                 ● Earthquake and sun and moon data are available - EQF  03:37:24 - 1/13/2004  (21071)  (0)