John, I should quit while I'm ahead, but probably won't. As I said, I've only posted predictions 4 or 5 times, and I usually/always say what the basis is (including, no real basis). Let's see-it's still too warm here, and it's still showery. So, using persistence, I guess there have probably already been M6+ earthquakes SE of Loyalty Islands that have not been posted yet at NEIC because it is weekend. Will this swarm lead to an 8? Probably not, but 1 or 2 more 7s would not be surprising. If I'm going to use the weather analogy, it is going to change here dramatically tomorrow/Tuesday, so science-based weather forecast will beat persistence. So, I'll say that by Monday or Tuesday the Loyalty Islands swarm will start to taper down. Gee, my luck must have gone to my head.

I don't have a feel where else in the world the next M7 will be. Maybe you should start a Petra-style contest and see what people say.

Which leads to how to beat Roger's program-predict only for areas with increased activity. You will almost certainly beat the long-term probabilities if you do this with skill. Some predictions made on this page may fall in that catagory-Chris