The program can be used for different applications including the following one:

Let us say that you generate an earthquake forecast for a particular location and magnitude (5 or greater) with a time window having a 10 day duration. And you want to determine how likely it would be for such an earthquake to occur by chance. You would enter your data into the program and it would generate a number which would indicate the probability that such an earthquake could occur in that area during any 10 day period of time.

If it stated that there was a 90% chance that an earthquake would occur there then your forecast would not be too unusual. However if it stated that there was only a 0.9% chance and you were certain regarding the accuracy of your forecast then it could probably be regarded as being a fairly significant one.

That type of information can be helpful for judging how well an earthquake forecasting program is working. If accurate forecasts are being repeatedly made which the program indicated should actually have had a low probability of being successful by chance then it would suggest that the forecasting program could be producing good results.

It works by comparing your input data with a database which contains NEIC records of past earthquakes occurring around the world with magnitudes of 5 or greater. More detailed information regarding how the program works can be found in its "Help" file.

If the program is sufficiently popular a more advanced version might be created which would make it possible to evaluate large numbers of forecasts at the same time. Some existing earthquake forecasting programs are generating quite a few forecasts every day. And the present version of the probability program performs a single evaluation at a time.