politics vs practicality
Posted by John Vidale on November 21, 2003 at 09:16:49:

Canie,

What you call politics, I'd call practicality.
The most optimistic state of the art in the scientific community has forecasts of roughly 50% chances of earthquakes over half-year length windows.
That's not really good enough to do much good, nor
does the community uniformly believe them.

No one is keeping scientists from proclaiming these guesses except their own desire not to embarrass themselves if the quakes do not happen.

Of course, some think they can do better but have not proven it.

John