Re: I Can Predict Earthquakes. Well Not Really
Posted by Don in Hollister on November 10, 2003 at 20:27:12:

Hi Kiddo. Pain is like an old friend. It’s always with you to let you know you’re still alive.

I think the best thing I like about Parkfield is the BBQ pork spareribs. The rib eye steaks aren’t that bad either. When I took Hal down there he ordered one of the steaks. He wasn’t disappointed. He had a field day with the various plants he found there. He is a biologist you know. Now if only I could get him to use the common name for the plants instead of the Latin I would know which plant he is talking about.

We have come a long way with the ear tones, but not far enough. You heard the Seattle quake in 2001, but at the time you didn’t know it. When you hear a tone for the first time there is no way you can point to the location. You know the direction and how far, but not the location. As of right now I know of no way to change that. You and the others are getting the M>3.0 and larger down pretty pat in that you are getting within 20 miles of most of them, but there is still the problem with identifying a new one.

I had a lot of fun with the quake forecasts I made. However the same problem exists now that existed then. Getting the correct magnitude is still the problem. We know the when and where the quake is most likely to occur within a 37-mile radius, but not the magnitude. We have no way of knowing what the amount of stress there is at any given location. We can with a certain degree of accuracy with quakes that occur within the Bay Area, Parkfield, San Juan Bautista, Long Valley and a small section of Southern California, but then again we have never had to chance to test it.

I hope USGS and the Berkeley Seismology Labs get the additional 6 mini PBOs sites in before the next large quake hits the Bay Area. I don’t know how much of the new budget they are getting, but hope it’s enough that they can finish the array. Take Care…Don in creepy town