Posted by EQF on November 09, 2003 at 21:31:33:
Hi Todd, Thanks for the supportive note. I am not too personally concerned about the negative comments which are posted here in response to my notes. Some of my strong supporters are presently among the most influential international earthquake forecasting and disaster mitigation people on Earth. This bulletin board just provides a convenient, somewhat protected forum for discussing this subject matter. My primary concern about the negative comments posted here is that I am afraid that they slow earthquake forecasting research efforts and tend to get people pointed in wrong or unproductive directions. Let me add the following opinions for the benefit of people who are concerned about approaching earthquakes. *** The chances that some proposed earthquake will affect any particular individual during a given period of time are I expect probably lower than the chances of their being sent off to their eternal reward by a car or home related accident. *** When I detect these warning signals, the expected earthquake then occurs during the next week perhaps only 50% of the time. With the other 50% of the time, the fault zone goes into a temporary condition of stability while it adds additional strain and it waits for the sun and the moon to once again return to positions in the sky when forces related to their gravitational pulls will be able to trigger the earthquake. *** If this present expected earthquake is going to be a U.S. West Coast one you would think that with all of the people along the coast who are monitoring different types of earthquake precursors, someone should be detecting something.
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