Forecast credibility
Posted by EQF on November 09, 2003 at 21:08:03:

As I have said before, my forecasts are intended in part to let people know when they should begin watching for a significant earthquake. I am not especially concerned about even very powerful but harmless ones. I have also said that I generally do not provide too much in the way of details regarding expected time and location.

So, what does my recent track record look like along those lines?

Check the posts going back months in time and try to find the last occasion when I posed a "watch for a significant earthquake" note. Unless I missed one when I myself checked, the last post of that sort was the following one on May 12, 2003.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/18666.html

And lo and behold, about a week later we had an earthquake in Algeria which I believe was by far the most damaging one to occur to date this year.

So my recent track record for letting people know when it is about time to begin watching for a significant earthquake has a 100% success rate.