Re: 2.9 to 3.9 prediction for golden gate
Posted by EQF on October 31, 2003 at 00:27:49:

Hi Steve, If I can offer a suggestion,

Something I have proposed here in the past is that with earthquake forecasting at the present time it appears to be every “man, woman, and child” for himself or herself. What that means is that every forecaster probably has to keep track of the outcome of his or her own predictions and then let people know if they think that they were successful or not.

So, if you have the time and inclination you might want to watch for that expected earthquake yourself and then post a note here letting people know if you think the forecast was successful or not.

At times when people do that they may get criticized for making a judgment on their own data. But if they don’t do that then it probably won’t get done by anyone else. And possibly valuable information regarding the accuracy of a new forecasting method might be lost.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: prediction not sucessful - steve s/ sf  23:49:36 - 11/3/2003  (19993)  (1)
        ● Ok n/t - EQF  05:43:52 - 11/5/2003  (20003)  (0)