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FFAs after M8s examination |
I looked at Roger's output file for all the M5s following M8, sorted by angular distance. First, some of the M8s have not M5s following within 2 deg-this seems unlikely, so must be an incomplete catalogue for M5s. I looked at 3 of the largest peaks 78 deg, 102-103 deg, and 155 deg. Only 102-103 corresponds to the FFA distances. The great majority of the number of M5s at a distance are located within 100-200 km of each other-meaning they are aftershocks of another large quake or swarms. Without wading into the main catalogue, I can't tell if they are aftershocks if a main quake occurs before the 14 day window. So, for 78 deg: there are 5 locations quakes are triggered after the 27 main quakes, but a total of 31 M5+s at this angular distance For 102 deg: 6 locations, 10 quakes total 103 deg, 10 locations, 29 quakes total 155deg: 9 locations, 41 quakes total. So, to see the significance of following quakes, we would have to compare number of locations triggered with M5 or larger, not number of quakes. And quake within a few deg of another would count as 1 location (if the M9.5 1960 Chile earthquake had followed a M8 by 14 days, then just the aftershocks of that would be spread out over 1000 km and show a huge broad peak at a range of angular distances........) So, are FFAs discredited? Not yet-there may be something there. But, so far it does not seem like there is anything major at the prescribed angular distances, except 102-103. And, I can't tell if 102 or 103 is within the range of chance... Follow Ups: ● Re: FFAs after M8s examination - Roger Hunter 12:05:02 - 10/16/2003 (19696) (0) |
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