Don-a forecast of a 60% probability of an earthquake in 30 years does not mean that they expect it to wait 30 years. They mean it is just as likely to happen tomorrow. In the case of Marmara Sea/Istanbul, they probably expected it would be more likely within a few years-although that was not part of the forecast (am I mixing forecast and prediction). So, the Hokkaido quake was not early at all, assuming the wording was like it is for the U.S....Chris