Shan, it is my understanding that you have a degree in physics. So this proposed experiment should sound interesting to you. I imagine that other people would also be interested in its outcome. It might help you with your efforts to gain recognition for your forecasting procedure and also increase its power and usefulness. And I expect that any significant results would be highly publishable. If you do not have time to assemble the equipment for the experiment then perhaps someone else could prepare it for you and ship it to you.

What I am specifically proposing has probably been done by other researchers in the past. But I don’t think that anyone would have compared his or her data with the sun shadow deflection data that you yourself are collecting.

SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION

According to my understanding, Shan is observing the shadow that some object casts on a wall running north and south. During the course of a year the path of the shadow has roughly the shape of the number 8. When he observes significant deflections in the daily sun shadow position from the expected position he can make some measurements and do some calculations and tell where an earthquake might be about to occur within a longitude range of plus or minus 90 degrees from where he lives.

The tremendous value that both he and I feel his procedure might have is that it is so simple and inexpensive to organize and run that it might be used by people in even the most remote villages to watch for local earthquakes.

At the moment some of the problems are that it has not yet been conclusively shown to work. And no one including Shan himself really knows what is responsible for the sun shadow deflections he is observing. Is it a significant movement of the ground in his area, a “twisting” or rotation of the ground in his area versus north and south, a bending of the light reaching him due to changes in the density and/or thickness of the atmosphere?

There are now some high powered earthquake research personnel trying to find the answers to those questions. And I expect that sooner or later the answers will be forthcoming. The following proposed experiment might help with such efforts.

PROPOSED EXPERIMENT

Near the wall you are using to observe the sun shadow, hang a long, thin magnetized bar from the ceiling using something like plastic fishing line. Both the bar and suspension line should be as long as possible. The bar should also be close to the surface of the wall. And each end should be sharpened to a point. Try to find some type of fishing line or thread which is unlikely to stretch with time.

Right next to each end of the bar glue a piece of transparent plastic or glass to the wall so that it forms a flat surface which runs perpendicular to the length of the bar. Then on a day when your sun shadow is not showing any significant deflection observe the location of the point of each end of the bar relative to the plastic or glass and use a permanent marker to place a dot on the plastic to indicate that position.

When you make your daily sun shadow deflection measurements also determine where the point of each end of the bar is relative to that permanent marker dot.

RESULTS

This magnetized bar device then represents a type of tilt meter which will provide you with some information regarding how the wall is oriented towards the Earth’s center. And it will also tell you how the wall has twisted or rotated relative to magnetic north.

THE VALUE OF THE EXPERIMENT

In addition to having the sun shadow deflection data you now collecting both tilt and rotation data. And the more data such as those that you can report, the easier it will be for researchers to determine exactly what it is that you are measuring.

Additionally, if you can show that the new tilt and rotation data can also be used to help forecast earthquakes then it makes your procedure that much more powerful. This additional feature would be very inexpensive for people to use in addition to the sun shadow deflection measurements. And those tilt and rotation data would still be available to people when the skies are overcast.

AIR MOVEMENT PROBLEM

If air movement causes the bar to swing back and forth too much then it could be enclosed in something like long cardboard gift wrapping paper tubes which would also be fastened to the wall. The tube material should not be magnetic, probably should not conduct electricity, and should not easily build a static charge. I believe that paper and cardboard are safe. A plastic tube might build a static charge.