Hi All. The following is a paper from Dr. Lowell Whiteside that was written in 1998.

“Recent work has suggested that earthquakes occur as part of a chaotic system. When a chaotic system like a loose pile of sand is near a major change, small effects can trigger the major event, and moderate-sized events occur with greater frequency as the major event is approached. I believe that short-term earthquake prediction will ultimately be achieved once we understand the triggering agents and their means of initiating seismic events, for it now seems likely that most earthquakes are triggered events.”

Having had access to the data for close to 4 years that is being used by geoForcasters I found that the biggest problem encountered in trying to predict a major quake was the lack of knowledge as to where sufficient stress has built up to produce a major quake. Even if the knowledge of stress was know, you would still have to know how much stress would be required to break the object causing the stress.

The Mini PBOs in the Bay Area give us the best chance of seeing the stress build up. The sites are located in such a manner that they overlap one another. The more sites that indicate stress build up the greater the chances are that we are going to have a large quake. The area of greatest concern now is the Rodgers Creek Fault. It has no PBO at present time and it isn’t known when one will be installed. It is felt though that the sites are the Marin Headlands, San Rafael and Ohlone may indicate some stress build up if the build up is along the southern segment of Rodgers Creek Fault. Take Care…Don in creepy town

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