John, this is something that I have discussed in the past. Perhaps it is time to mention it again.

My data, and I believe data collected by other researchers indicate that earthquakes are often being triggered and certain precursors are being generated when fault zones are being bent, stretched, and compressed in specific ways, usually by forces directly and/or indirectly linked with the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky, and hence probably their gravitational pulls. And I cannot see how anyone with a good background in physics could read that 90-03.html report at my Web site and state that this not the case. Those data appear to me to be very clear on that. And they are 100% reproducible. Most scientists should not have much trouble obtaining the original data and doing the calculations.

A formula for all of this would look something like the following:

T = aA + bB + cC + dD + ...

T is the earthquake triggering time.

A, B, C, D ... are factors or phenomena which can affect the earthquake triggering time. They would include ocean tides, the Solid Earth Tide, direct gravity forces etc.

a, b, c, d, ... are factors which show how important a particular force or phenomenon is for a given earthquake.

aA is the buildup of strain due to things like tectonic plate movement etc. As this takes place over a long period of time we can assume that aA is to some extent a constant and ignore it. We can fairly easily propose what B, C, and D … are. Quite a few candidates are listed in the 129.html report at my Web site.

The big question is: How can we tell how fault zones are being bent etc. at a given point in time so that we can determine values for b, c, and d …? When people discuss the earthquake triggering effects of ocean tides etc. this is essentially what they are asking in my opinion.

I believe that the answer to that question is that we probably cannot presently easily tell what the values of b, c, and d are. And rather than simply abandon hope and claim that “Earthquakes cannot be predicted” I myself have developed an unusual approach to dealing with that question. It appears to produce good results.

Using the procedures discussed in detail at my Web site and in greater detail in e-mail reports that I have been circulating I have developed an equation which might be described as having “synthetic” values for B1, C1, D1 ... and b, c, and d … It might look like this:

T = (aA – unimportant for a brief time scale equations) + b1B1 + c1C1 + d1D1 + ...

B1, C1, D1 ... are based on sun and moon positions and ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data etc. But they are to a certain extent computer generated factors and phenomena rather than strictly physical factors and phenomena. And the values which I use for b1, c1, and d1 … have been determined by evaluating a fairly large number of earthquakes and precursor signals.

That “synthetic” equation is part of the complex earthquake forecasting computer programs that I use. It enables me to often generate fairly good forecasts. And I believe that it has the potential to open the door to research which would enable us to determine what the real values are for b, c, and d ...

So, what I am proposing is that if people want to learn how to determine how earthquakes are being triggered and how they can be forecast then they can continue hammering away at determining values for b, c, and d ... using direct methods which do not appear to be getting very far very fast. Or they can use the somewhat indirect method which I am using which presently appears to be limited only by the amount of time that researchers want to devote to it.