This report will discuss a number of topics. This is partly because I am discussing different parts of the earthquake forecasting and earthquake triggering pictures with a number of people around the world. And I am trying to cover as many of the subjects which are being discussed as possible in this report which is being posted here and circulated by e-mail.

These are expressions of personal opinion based on what I believe I understand regarding this subject matter.

UNDERSTANDING THE SOLID EARTH TIDE

Ocean tides are fairly complex in part because of ocean currents, storm effects, and the fact that ocean tides can "bounce" off a shore and begin moving in the opposite direction. In comparison Solid Earth Tides are highly predictable. And a number of computer programs are available which appear to generate accurate information regarding where Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs are located etc. at any point in time. I myself use one which was created by the late Hans-Georg Wenzel.

There is apparently a fairly well organized group of scientists around the world who are studying Solid Earth Tides. One of their main centers of action is in Belgium. Links to some of their Web sites can be found on my 141.html Web page.

I do not know exactly why those people are interested in the Solid Earth Tide. Perhaps they feel that by observing differences between expected tide properties and what they are actually observing they can learn valuable things about what is taking place in the interior of the Earth.

One of the main problems that I have encountered with these and almost all of the other computer programs which I am using is the fact that they are not designed specifically for earthquake research. You have to generate the original data and then in some cases do extensive data manipulations in order to get the data into a useful form. In fact I have had to link something like 15 separate computer programs together in one way or another in order to generate the needed data.

Efforts are underway to get more efficient data generation computer programs developed. Funding no longer appears to be a limiting problem. At the moment efforts are focused on trying to determine what types of information the programs need to generate and the best way to write them. Should they be written in Basic, Perl … etc.? Should they be programs which will run on a home computer or ones which will run at a Web site, or both?

SHAN'S FORECASTING PROCEDURE

I understand that he is watching for differences between the actual position of a sun shadow on a wall and the expected position. He then does some calculations which compare any differences with his records of past differences. And when matches are found it indicates to him that another earthquake might be about to occur near where a previous one occurred.

Assuming that his procedure does actually produce accurate data then a question which is now being discussed by myself and other researchers has to do with the reason those differences are occurring.

It is my understanding that at least some researchers believe that the differences in sun shadow positions may be due to a tilt in the daily North - South Pole axis rotation of the Earth. My own theory on that would be that they are probably linked with a shift in the ground where the measurement is being made rather than a significant Earth axis tilt shift.

My present theory picture proposes that the rock layers of fault zones have an elastic character which enables them to gradually absorb strain energy resulting from the slow movement of tectonic plates etc. The rock layers bend. Eventually they can no longer be bent any farther. And for different lengths of time before the rock layers fracture and produce an earthquake the bending effects related to plate movement etc. begin to appear elsewhere around the world. It is something like the cars of a freight train slamming into one another when the train engine's brakes are applied. Fault zones around the world begin to "pile up."

One of the consequences of this is the fact (assuming that it is a fact) that there is some ground displacement near where Shan lives. After the earthquake occurs the tectonic plates are once again able to move without the fault zone in question acting as a logjam of sorts.

So, what is Shan measuring, Earth axis tilt, local ground displacement, both, neither?

HOW TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION

I believe that this question and many questions regarding how and why earthquakes are being triggered and what factors are controlling the times when many precursors are generated can be answered by expanding the earthquake triggering theory models which I have developed. They propose that those processes are linked directly and/or indirectly with the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky, and hence probably, with their gravitational pulls on the Earth. And perhaps the best proof that I can supply that those theory models are accurate is the fact that they are enabling me to generate increasingly accurate earthquake forecasts.

One of the best features of those theory models is the fact that virtually all of the necessary research can be done with a computer, even a home computer, using already available data generation programs if necessary, and available earthquake data. Certain types of precursor data can also be used to generate even better results.

2 IMPORTANT EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING CYCLES

One group of important cycles is about 30 days long. The most important cycle is about 25 hours long. Wave Chart related reports already stored at my Web site provide a fairly good explanation of how the 30 day cycles work. But most other researchers appear to be having a difficult time understanding the 25 hour cycles.

Earlier this month I finished preparing a lengthy research report which provides a detailed explanation for how the 25 hour cycles work. And I am now getting some feedback regarding how well those concepts have been explained. That report is tentatively scheduled to evolve into a technical presentation for a number of researchers.

I have also been discussing this general subject matter with other scientists around the world for years. And in spite of its importance, no one appears to know much about it. The one group of researchers I had been unable to communicate with in the past are scientists in China. But during the past few months I have had an excellent chance to learn about their efforts. And it appears that although they have done an extensive amount of research on sun - Earth - moon related earthquake triggering effects, they have not yet discovered what appear to me to be some of the most important relationships in those data. Efforts are underway to correct that.

The situation is something like this:

Earthquake researchers have been walking around in a large building opening doors here and there looking for significant results. But there was one insignificant looking door which everyone assumed led to small room filled with dust mops. In fact that door is the entrance to another enormous building which holds important keys to understanding how and why earthquakes are occurring when they are occurring. I discovered this some time ago and am now trying to get other researchers to help pry the door open farther so that they can begin working with the contents of that enormous building.

This subject matter is so complex and there is so much research to do that it is discouraging for me to even think about it. But, as I stated, one bright ray of light is the fact that much of the research can be done with just a computer and available programs and data. You do not need to purchase and maintain expensive monitoring devices.

THE FAILURE OF LOGIC

When you develop a theory model like this you can then make adjustments to it, test them, and see if the results look better. If they do then you may have a more accurate theory model. However, that has not yet happened here with my 25 hour earthquake triggering cycle theory model picture. It relies heavily on the location of what I call the "Gravity Point," the location on the Earth's surface where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are strongest. The Gravity Point appears to me to be perhaps the single most important data point for earthquake triggering research. The Sublunar Point would be next in importance.

The Sublunar and Subsolar Points are the locations on the Earth's surface which the moon and the sun are directly above at a given point in time.

My original theory model involved simply adding Sublunar Point and Subsolar Point longitudes together using a moon / sun gravity strength ratio of 2.5. However when I added refinements such as adjusting for the changes in distance between the sun and the Earth, and the moon and the Earth the data appeared to become less accurate rather than more accurate. That indicates to me that I still do not know exactly why the Gravity Point is so important or how to best calculate its value. I presently suspect that the sun - Earth - moon barycenter (center of mass) around which the Earth rotates once each month might be involved. I believe that it is probably down a ways inside the Earth, directly beneath the Gravity Point.

Discussions are in progress regarding this subject matter. An important goal is to quickly get many more researchers involved. And if efforts continue to move in the direction they are presently moving then I believe that this might happen before too long.