Miss 9 predictions, 10th saves lives?
Posted by Alan Jones on December 21, 1999 at 07:13:21:

I don't follow how someone could miss 9 earthquake predictions but his 10th would save lives. Who would take any action based on a prediction from someone who had missed 9 straight?

Please don't take this as a negative assessment of what Dennis is doing. He is one of the few predictors whose predictions one can actually evaluate since he specifies time, place, and magnitude.

Most other predictions on this forum are so vaguely worded and so general that they are of little use. The purpose of this forum, as I understand it, is for folks to post predictions and then have a follow-up to see which are accurate and to see if anyone beats what someone could achieve by chance. For example, if I post a series of predictions for a magnitude 2.0 or better someplace in California for each week of the year 2000, I will probably be right for every week. Does that mean I can predict earthquakes since if have 52 straight hits? Of course not. One has to evaluate against the probability by chance.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re:, 10th saves lives?Don't give up! - Beth  10:33:31 - 12/21/1999  (1919)  (1)
        ● Re:, Yeah Beth...Saving Lives  - martin in Victoria  04:40:09 - 12/23/1999  (1956)  (0)