M14, [color=red]T15/V9.1,7.6M,6.5M, W16/GS48, Th17/6.0M[/color], F18, [color=red]Sa19/V8.4[/color], Su20, [color=red]M21LQ/6.4M,6.0M, T22Ag/6.0M[/color], W23, Th24[/b]

Key: Moon(FM, LQ, NM, or FQ; le or se; Pg or Ag); Solar flares=XC or MC, Geomagnetic Storm=GS30; Volcanic Eruption=V8; Earthquakes=6M

[size=5][color=red][b]Earth and Sun Digest for July 24, 2003 [/b][/color][/size]

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

[b]...at a Glance (with time ticking)

(Source data can change without notice or correction.)

Earthquakes of 5.0 to 5.9M thru Wednesday--11; [color=red]four quakes of 6M or greater: 7/22 6.0M VANUATU ISLANDS, 7/21 6.0M YUNNAN, CHINA, 7/21 6.4M NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G., 7/17 6.0M OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO[/color]

California earthquakes in past week--209; no quake of 4M or greater

[color=red]Volcanic ash over 5 mi (8 km)--Mexico[/color]

Sunspot No. high--224 on 20 July

Smallest to largest daily total area of sunspots--630 on 17 July to 1700 on 22 July (100 equals a Planet Earth area.)

X-Class Solar Flares: none; last M-Class flares (5/day) 8 on 11 June (see ticker for fewer MC)

Planetary Geomagnetic Indices: high of 26 on 19 July;

[color=red]one set of K-Indices of 4 or more (5 or more/24 hours*)--17-20 July[/color] [/b]

(* The 24 hour period can overlap two days.)

[b]Moon for July[/b] per Astronomy Magazine

6 first quarter, 10 perigee, 13 full, 21 last quarter, 22 apogee, 29 new

The moon is at [color=blue]perigee[/color] (229,555 miles near) 6 August.[/c]

[color=blue]SPECIAL NOTE looks at the current status of earthquake prediction.[/color]

[size=4][b]Recent Volcanic Eruptions[/b][/size]:

COLIMA western México 19.514°N,103.62°W; summit elev. ~3,850 m

on 17 July an explosion and incandescent volcanic material to ~4.3 km

and a SW-drifting ash cloud to a height of ~6.8 km

DUKONO Halmahera, Indonesia 1.70°N, 127.87°E; summit elev. 1,185 m

on 21 July an ash plume to a height of ~3 km

[color=blue]KARANGETANG [Api Siau] Siau Island, Indonesia 2.47°N, 125.29°E; summit elev. 1,784 m

a thick ash plume visible at a height of ~7.5 km[/color]

KILAUEA Hawaii, USA 19.43°N, 155.29°W; summit elev. 1,222 m

during 16-22 July surface lava flows visible on the coastal flat and upslope on the Pulama pali and Paliuli, no lava into the sea

KLIUCHEVSKOI Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia 56.06°N, 160.64°E; summit elev. 4,835 m

during 11-18 July explosions with ash clouds to a height of ~5.8 km, during 12-16 July ash clouds to ~6.82 km

[color=red]POPOCATÉPETL México 19.02°N, 98.62°W; summit elev. 5,426 m

during 16-22 July moderate emissions of mainly gas and steam occurred, on 19 July a moderate explosion with an ash plume to ~8.4 km[/color]

REVENTADOR Ecuador 0.078°S, 77.656°W, summit elev. 3,562 m

rainfall during 7-13 July remobilizing ash, permanent tremor associated with degassing

SANTA MARIA Guatemala 14.45°N, 091.33°W; summit elev. 3,772 m

eruption 23 July with ash column to 4.5 km

SEMERU Java, Indonesia 8.11EN, 112.92EE; summit elev. 3,676 m

an ash cloud on 21 July extending ~75 km

SOPUTAN Sulawesi, Indonesia 1.11°N, 124.73°E; summit elev. 1,784 m

on 18 July incandescent lava avalanches, a pyroclastic surge and an ash cloud to ~3.8 km, on 19 July pyroclastic flows, ash explosions, Strombolian activity, and lava emission; ash explosions through at least 21 July

SOUFRIÈRE HILLS Montserrat, West Indies 16.72°N, 62.18°W; summit elev. 1,030 m

a lava-dome collapse on 12 July volcanic until 13 July, then the following morning a sudden vulcanian explosion, then two more explosions during the next 2 days; after an explosion on 15 July, volcanic and seismic activity relatively low

TUNGURAHUA Ecuador 1.47°S, 78.44°W; summit elev. 5,023 m

during 16-22 July emissions of steam and gas forming low-level plumes

Ash data is summarized from the weekly GVN/USGS report at

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/

All ash elevations are in km above sea level (a.s.l.).

[b][size=4][COLOR=green]EARTH[/COLOR][/size]:

[COLOR=green]FIVE Index of Global earthquakes of 5.0 magnitude or greater[/COLOR][/b]

(Reference: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/ )

[COLOR=red](6.0 or greater are highlighted in red.)[/COLOR]

Regions highlighted are

[COLOR=green]Japan[/COLOR] and [COLOR=blue]South Pacific[/COLOR].

Note the PERIGEE of the moon.[b]

DATE-(UTC)-TIME LAT LON DEP MAG Q COMMENTS
yy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss deg. deg. km

[color=red]READ UP for latest report.[/color]

03/07/24 10:23:170.09N124.52E33.0 5.8MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

03/07/23 16:53:3515.48S13.27W10.0 5.2SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

03/07/23 16:38:3715.55S13.32W10.0 5.8SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

03/07/22 06:21:146.85N93.38E10.0 5.1NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

[color=blue]03/07/22 04:21:4015.46S166.20E33.0[/color] [color=red]6.0VANUATU ISLANDS[/color]

03/07/21 19:45:130.51S123.64E33.0 5.5SULAWESI, INDONESIA

03/07/21 19:21:096.66N93.51E10.0 5.5NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

03/07/21 15:16:3125.96N101.19E10.0 [color=red]6.0YUNNAN, CHINA[/color]

[color=blue]03/07/21 13:53:585.54S148.94E190.2[/color] [color=red]6.4NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.[/color]

03/07/21 05:59:431.27S69.71E10.0 5.0CARLSBERG RIDGE

03/07/19 21:20:348.64S111.24E33.0 5.9JAVA, INDONESIA

03/07/18 04:21:031.24S69.53E10.0 5.0CARLSBERG RIDGE

[color=blue]03/07/18 02:28:2517.87S173.07W33.0 5.0TONGA[/color]

03/07/17 20:10:3917.81N119.71E42.8 5.1PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

03/07/17 19:57:1618.48N107.12W33.0 [color=red]6.0OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO[/color]

03/07/17 19:03:4619.54S68.46W135.5 5.1CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION

[b][COLOR=green]United States Quakes this past week[/COLOR]

with quakes that might be felt:

03/07/22 11:41:1542.77N70.02W11.0 3.6NEAR THE COAST MASSACHUSETTS

03/07/22 07:31:2840.59N124.96W10.8 3.8OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

03/07/21 19:21:5832.23N115.24W6.0 3.0BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

03/07/21 04:26:2236.96N121.57W7.1 2.8NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

03/07/19 15:23:4119.11N66.26W67.1 2.7PUERTO RICO REGION

03/07/19 15:22:0719.27N66.23W24.7 2.6PUERTO RICO REGION

03/07/17 23:15:2933.04N116.45W8.8 2.7SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

03/07/17 13:29:5236.65N120.95W0.9 2.0CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

03/07/17 10:33:2334.72N121.13W6.0 3.2OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

03/07/17 10:08:0934.72N121.14W6.0 3.1OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

03/07/17 08:48:1736.65N120.94W5.1 3.1CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

03/07/17 00:44:1041.86N80.76W5.0 2.5OHIO

Alaska Listings

03/07/23 10:52:3063.52N147.20W1.0 3.7CENTRAL ALASKA

03/07/23 01:09:2850.90N179.83W33.0 4.3ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

03/07/22 03:52:0557.74N136.30W10.0 3.9SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA

03/07/19 23:25:4163.53N147.65W5.0 3.1CENTRAL ALASKA

03/07/19 11:08:0351.62N173.38W33.0 4.5ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

03/07/19 00:20:0163.48N148.37W8.0 3.7CENTRAL ALASKA

03/07/18 16:39:5462.99N143.68W5.0 3.7CENTRAL ALASKA

03/07/17 22:39:4260.82N150.28W46.0 3.8KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA

03/07/17 18:51:4351.47N176.61E33.0 4.1RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

03/07/17 15:19:3263.25N145.18W10.0 3.1CENTRAL ALASKA

[COLOR=GREEN]MEDITERRANEAN REGION[/b], Continued[/color]

03/07/23 04:56:0538.21N28.77E33.0 4.9WESTERN TURKEY

03/07/18 00:44:4544.47N6.86E5.0 2.4FRANCE

03/07/17 21:51:4248.36N6.66E10.0 2.2FRANCE

03/07/17 20:26:4144.46N6.78E5.0 2.2FRANCE

03/07/17 19:45:2044.46N6.79E5.0 2.2FRANCE

3/07/17 18:29:4944.46N6.79E5.0 2.6FRANCE

03/07/17 16:36:1544.44N6.78E5.0 2.2FRANCE

03/07/17 16:34:1344.46N6.84E5.0 2.3FRANCE

03/07/17 10:54:0948.93N7.81E5.0 2.3FRANCE

03/07/17 09:10:3442.56N1.96E5.0 2.3PYRENEES

03/07/17 06:30:5335.54N31.07E33.0 4.1CYPRUS REGION

03/07/17 02:27:1646.70N9.90E11.0 3.7SWITZERLAND

03/07/17 02:07:1049.17N6.78E1.0 2.5GERMANY

Late Listings

03/07/16 22:00:3246.70N9.90E7.0 2.9SWITZERLAND

03/07/16 21:28:5948.37N6.64E5.0 1.5FRANCE

03/07/16 19:35:0744.51N7.32E10.0 2.3NORTHERN ITALY

03/07/16 18:19:1748.33N6.68E5.0 2.3FRANCE

03/07/16 12:43:3644.39N7.15E10.0 2.2NORTHERN ITALY

03/07/16 11:08:5946.70N9.80E6.0 2.0SWITZERLAND

03/07/15 23:57:5946.41N6.11E3.0 1.9SWITZERLAND

03/07/15 23:46:4242.87N0.25E3.0 1.9PYRENEES

03/07/15 23:37:3948.33N6.67E5.0 1.6FRANCE

03/07/15 20:00:2448.34N6.65E5.0 1.7FRANCE

03/07/15 19:24:4846.90N9.60E5.0 2.3SWITZERLAND

03/07/15 19:02:1448.35N6.67E5.0 1.6FRANCE

03/07/15 17:50:003.03N31.30W10.0 5.0CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

[b][color=green]Monthly Summary of Earthquakes of 6 or greater Magnitude[/color][/b]

in the World, per USGS/NEIC Preliminary Global Report[b]

YEAR: 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

April 0 12 17 4 9 6 8 3 9 7 8

May 3 15 17 8 9 6 9 5 8 7 16 with two 7M's

June 1 11 12 12 3 3 3 22 10 14 12 with one 7M

July 2 10 12 7 5 9 8 9 10 5 (10 with one 7M)

Yr total 19 110 160 109 76 63 103 109 112 133 (74)[/b]

[b][size=4][COLOR=red]SUN[/COLOR][/size]

Sunspot numbers for the past week:

7/16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

164 189 193 178 224 219 200 164

Planetary geomagnetic A Indices for same period

[color=red]48[/color] 22 14 26 19 12 9 11[/b]

Data from http://www.sec.noaa.gov/

[b]SPECIAL NOTE[/b]

[b]The Status of Earthquake Prediction[/b]

From Ruth Ludwin's article at the URL below:[quote]

Although we are not able to predict individual earthquakes, the world's largest earthquakes do have a clear spatial pattern, and "forecasts" of the locations and magnitudes of some future large earthquakes can be made. [/quote]

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html

Questions and comments help me serve you better.

Donald J. Boon, editor, [email]donaldboon@comcast.net[/email]

Original weekly edition: www.bbmessages.com on Planet Earth/Seismology BB