Hi EQF. When was the last successful prediction made in China? The only one I’m aware of was in 1975. A year later there was another quake in which close to 650,000 people were killed. No one predicted that quake.

It is now more than 30 years since precursory monitoring and earthquake prediction has been carried out in China. However, earthquake prediction remains a complex and unsolved problem in spite of the development and improvement in this field. We still have far to go to reach our goal. 2001-2003 Copyright by China Seismological Bureau (CSB). All rights reserved. Produced by the Institute of Geophysics, CSB (IG CSB)

There have been other predictions made, but they only had “moderate success.” Not sure what that means.

The following is from the LAW OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
ON PROTECTING AGAINST AND MITIGATING EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

Chapter II Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction

Article 16 The State adopts the practice of unified release of earthquake prediction.

“Short-term and imminent earthquake prediction shall be released by the people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in accordance with the procedures prescribed by the State Council”

“All units and specialists engaged in seismic work shall submit their predictions about short-term or imminent earthquakes to the competent administrative department for seismic work under the State Council or to the administrative departments or institutions for seismic work under the local people's governments at or above the county level, which shall deal with them in accordance with the provisions of the preceding paragraph; they may not spread their predictions to the general public without authorization.”

It is my understanding that anyone violating this article can be put in prison, or executed. Not sure as to how true that is. Prison seems likely, but not sure about execution. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• China Seismological Bureau