Hi Canie. According to Prof Geoffrey King the next quake associated with the North Anatolian fault will most likely be at or near Istanbul. Take Care…Don in creepy town

Prof Geoffrey King was fascinated by the cyclic behaviour of the North Anatolian fault in northern Turkey. Earthquakes in the region moved from east to west with a period of quiet at the end before the cycle began again. King used the same model that had been used to show the connection between the quakes in Landers and Big Bear. The first earthquake King looked at was in the northern city of Erzican in 1939. Using the available data on that quake he found that a town to the west called Tokat was in the red, danger zone. Tokat was indeed struck by a quake in 1942. The model seemed to be working. In 1967 Adapazari, also in a red zone, was hit. It looked like stress generated in one earthquake was being transferred to the west. These could not be aftershocks as they were separated by years, not hours.

As King continued to put data into the model he discovered that a city called Izmit seemed to be the next place that would be struck. With a population of 500,000 people King and other scientists knew they needed to make this discovery public knowledge.

"Buildings can be improved. Construction can be modified"
Prof Geoffrey King
Newspapers, science journals and other publications all printed this remarkable news. Unfortunately there was not enough interest from the local community. In August 1999 King was tragically proved right when a massively energetic earthquake lasting just 45 seconds killed 25,000 people. It was a bittersweet feeling for King. On one hand he was proved right, on the other he knew that many people had lost their lives who could have been saved. King also knew that there was a high chance of more earthquakes. So using the data acquired from the Izmit quake he began to work out where the next most likely earthquake site would be.

The answer would cause a great deal of concern. At the edge of the red zone lay the city of Istanbul, home to more than four million people. The city's high population density puts its inhabitants at maximum risk. There is good news though; if the warning from King's team is heeded then arrangements can be made to make Istanbul safer in the event of an earthquake, whenever it happens. For now though, only time will tell if King's prediction will prove correct.

• Earthquake Storm