Re: A Song For Shan
Posted by Petra Challus on June 15, 2003 at 18:27:13:

Hello Shan,

Have you ever wondered why medical researchers find the cure to one disease only to be confronted by another one? The human being has a form which is duplicated, so that one is much like the other and the form "disease" can be located in this human being because of its nature and form and likeness to the next.

Earthquake faults are not like human beings. Each is to their own. They formed from many sources, they have various geological structures and thus you may find similarities from one to another, but not nearly as close as the human being. It is this one single fact which sets medical cures and earthquake prediction apart.

Funding for medical research is available because the global population is a risk from some diseases, whereas only some parts of the globe are affected by earthquakes. As Roger Bilham so aptly said: "Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do." So if we just addressed this one issue of proper construction and earthquake safety awareness we would never need to be told an earthquake was coming, because the cure to the problem would already be in effect everywhere.

I know the figure for funding for earthquake prediction is well over $400,000,000 and so far the results have not proven satisfactory. Imagine spending four hundred million on reconstruction, retrofitting and public education? We would be so much closer to survival.

I made a prediction the other day for an earthquake between Bishop and Benton, CA and today one showed up close by. My window is still open until June 20, but if this is the only earthquake which arrives it will be a prediction failure because I will have missed my predicted area by 4.81 miles and .3 to low on the magnitude range. Can you site any prediction you have ever made that occurred within 5 miles, within your magnitude range and window? Only you can answer that question, but this is a tough game and the rules are strict, but I do follow them.

However, our friend, EQF, who you support for global predictions simply issues the name of a country and that is supposed to be good enough. Which part of the country would you evacuate if needed? That is why there are standards and unless everyone follows them, then there is no grade for passing if you fail. I can accept my failures when they emerge, especially if I make them in public.

Every time I see the results of a deadly earthquake I look at the construction and I ask myself to seek answers as to how to make some places safer without reconstructing the whole building. There are answers and they are not expensive. In the recent school dormitory collapse, I thought, if they had placed heavy, study metal boxes, beneath the beds of the students, with one side open and a bar to hold on to that a student could simply jump out of bed, and into the box and when the earthquake stopped, the box, equipped with a whistle, would allow rescuers to find them. It's not a perfect idea, but the cost of 200 boxes is a lot less than rebuilding the entire structure when there is no money for rebuilding. Today, entire families are left without future farmers because of shoddy construction, not an earthquake.

I believe for every problem in the world there is an answer. Only some people will seek those answers, yet there are others who will never accept that the answers are correct in the face of every shred of evidence in the world.

I know today "ear tone prediction" will never be accepted, it cannot be papered and thus in the eyes of scientists it has no valid place in this universe. I now live in acceptance this is the case, but I dance to my own songs.

Best Regards,

Petra


Follow Ups:
     ● Miss tune - R.Shanmugasundaram  09:30:22 - 6/16/2003  (18931)  (0)
     ● a dollar is not what is used to be - John Vidale  06:49:35 - 6/16/2003  (18929)  (0)