The following is most of the text of a report that I just posted to a number of Internet Newsgroups including sci.geo.earthquakes. The last section in the report discusses a theory for why certain types of earthquake forecasting programs might not be 100% successful.

In a note posted here a while ago I stated that following that destructive May 1 earthquake in Turkey I detected a number of earthquake warning signals and that that type of thing seems to happen fairly often. A theory which I am presently evaluating proposes that the Turkey earthquake itself and some of its aftershocks may have directly or indirectly produced some of the energy responsible for those warning signals.

AN IMPORTANT EARTHQUAKE RELATED PROJECT

SUMMARY: An international earthquake warning data evaluation organization needs to be established as quickly as possible. It would collect earthquake warning information from individual earthquake forecasters, research groups, and governments around the world, evaluate those data, and circulate timely earthquake warnings and advisories to appropriate parties such as government agencies and international disaster response groups.

Additional: The last section of this report outlines a theory which proposes why certain types of electromagnetic energy field fluctuation based earthquake forecasting programs such as my own program might have an inherent limitation which makes it difficult or impossible for them to detect the approach of every important earthquake.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.

Earthquakes Pose A Serious Threat To Us All

They undoubtedly represent the worst threat to people who live near active earthquake fault zones. But they also represent serious economic threats to everyone on the planet. A major earthquake can decimate an entire country's economy and have a serious impact on the global economic picture.

Warnings Were Circulated Before At Least Two Of Our Recent Destructive Earthquakes

Around February 9, 2003 I myself began to circulate e-mail warnings for a potentially destructive earthquake to groups around the world. The final one in that series was circulated on February 20. And on February 24 there was a highly destructive earthquake in China. On May 12, 2003 I once again began circulating earthquake warnings. A short, carefully worded one was even posted to a public Internet Bulletin Board. The last warning in that series was circulated on May 14. And as many people are aware, on May 21 there was a highly destructive earthquake in Algeria.

People who would like to see some evidence of those earthquake warnings can try searching through Newsgroup archives for a note which I posted to the sci.geo.earthquake Internet Newsgroup on May 27, 1998 letting people know that I was watching for an earthquake to occur by May 30. I stated that I thought that it could occur in Iran or Afghanistan. And on May 30, 1998 an earthquake in Afghanistan reportedly claimed some 5000 lives.

The point here is that earthquake forecasting science is now sufficiently advanced that moderately accurate warnings are being circulated before at least some of our destructive earthquakes.

The Value Of Different Types Of Earthquake Warning Information

Even if you cannot tell precisely when and where an earthquake is going to occur, if you can provide disaster response groups with some idea regarding when they should begin watching for an earthquake which will require a response from them then they can start getting ready for it. And saved response time days, hours, and even minutes can be translated into saved lives. Some disaster response group personnel have personally told me that.

For example, rescue workers do not simply sit in a room somewhere 24 hours a day, 365 days a year waiting for an earthquake to occur. Many have jobs which require that they travel considerable distances from their headquarters and from transportation centers such as airports etc. And a timely warning could let them know that they need to remain in close contact with their headquarters during a certain period of time and to avoid taking a vacation in some remote area.

No International Earthquake Warning Organization Presently Exists

Most disaster mitigation groups are geared towards responding to earthquakes etc. rather than to collecting and evaluating warning information. The only organization of that type which I am aware of at this time is the State Seismological Bureau in the People's Republic of China. I understand that it has something like 10,000 full-time employees and a small army of volunteer workers who collect, evaluate, and then circulate earthquake warning information. But that bureau serves only one country. And even then, it is active in only certain parts of that vast country.

Who Should Establish And Run An Earthquake Warning Organization Like That?

Perhaps the only international group which could do that effectively might be the United Nations. I doubt that individual governments could afford to pay for the necessary physical resources and personnel. And I believe that the U.N. would probably be willing to undertake such a project. But they would likely need to receive funds for it from some outside source. And the money would have to be specifically earmarked for that warning program rather than added to the U.N.'s general fund or even invested in its present earthquake forecasting program which I believe is itself largely funded by outside groups and which primarily involves activities in just two countries.

WHY SOME EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAMS DO NOT WORK ALL OF THE TIME

This information is being included here to show that just because a given earthquake forecasting program does not detect the approach of every important earthquake, that does not mean that it cannot produce good forecasts for at least some earthquakes.

Some of the more popular forecasting programs involve the detection of different types of electromagnetic energy field fluctuations in either the ground, ocean, or air. That is how my own program works. And unfortunately at times, for what might be the following reason there are simply no signals to measure even when a powerful earthquake is about to occur.

Some of those signals can be traced back to complex and poorly understood interactions between geomagnetic storm energy, earthquake fault zones, and things such as low frequency radio waves. Current theories propose that in the days, week, and months before an earthquake occurs its fault zone rock layers undergo periodic, temporary physical and chemical changes which cause the fault zone to begin acting like a radio antenna for geomagnetic energy. And after there is a strong geomagnetic storm, active fault zones around the world can begin to generate electromagnetic energy field signals of different types which can be easily detected by various means as far away as the opposite side of the planet from the fault zone.

One of the primary sources of geomagnetic storm energy is solar storm activity. And it appears that the different types of solar storms such as electron rich or proton rich storms produce different geomagnetic field - earthquake fault zone interactions and hence different type earthquake warning signals.

Before some earthquakes there are no solar storms, no geomagnetic energy to interact with the fault zones, and no signals to measure. That appears to be what happened with this recent earthquake in Algeria. I myself based the warnings which I began circulating on May 12 largely on signals which were detected in previous months, especially last February. With some advanced data processing programs I have just recently begun using I was able to determine that a significant earthquake might occur around the middle of May. My most likely date for it was actually May 16. But May 7, 14, 21, and 28 were also fairly high probability dates.

Comment: Many earthquake researchers around the world are frustrated by the fact that their forecasting programs do not produce 100% reliable results. It may be that that proposed solar storm - geomagnetic storm - earthquake warning signal generation limitation represents a good part of the problem.

Additional Information

A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/124.html

The general plan for that program was made available to groups around the world as far back as 1996.

Earthquake Data For The Years 1990 To 2003
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-03.html

That report is actually still not available at my Web site. The Algeria earthquake and recent warning circulation related efforts caused some delays.

Finally, my sincere condolences to anyone who suffered a loss as a result of that earthquake.