Hi Canie and Chris. Without going into any great detail the quiet period were seeing for California at this time was expected. We should see a gradual increase with a marked increase in quakes towards the end of the month. Most of these will be in the Southern California area with some of the quakes occurring off shore.

I think there were a number of reasons Lowell graded me the way he did. One was to keep me interested. Rest assured he didn’t have to do that. The other reasons were that I used a 5-day window and a radius of 25 miles. I used no probability. It would occur when and where I said it would, or it would be a miss in my book. The data gave me a lot to choose from so I was able to be very selective in my choices.

I know the prediction counsel requires a probability. When it comes to predicting a major quake I don’t believe in probabilities. It will occur when and where it was said, or it won’t. Of course this means that I would never post a forecast for a major quake unless I were sure that there would be one. Fortunately I’m not the one that will have to make that forecast. This is one of those times that I will gladly sit on the side lines and watch the action. Take Care…Don in creepy town