Re: Elephant and Blind Men
Posted by 2cents on January 14, 2003 at 13:38:40:

Shan:

Regarding this statement of yours:

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I am not telling that I am an expert. But you must agree that more than 70% cases are
successful in my forecast since you are watching my website.
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Roger Hunter attempted to do an evaluation of your prediction success rate and found that your predictions to not specify the parameters enough in order to do a proper evaluation.

This conversation is somewhere in the archives for this web-site.

Your claim is therefore viewed with skepticism.

Why don't you properly specify the predicted location (with error bounds), time window, and magnitude ranges (including a minimum)? In this way, you could better support whatever accuracy claim that you are making.

If you choose not to do this, then only you will know why...but others will come to their own conclusions about you (as perhaps Turkey did?).

I'm not trying to discourage you but any claims of success will always be dealt with in a very skeptical light. Why not come prepared to argue your case?




Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Elephant and Blind Men - R.Shanmugasundaram  03:38:59 - 1/16/2003  (17797)  (1)
        ● Re: Elephant and Blind Men - 2cents  15:52:03 - 1/19/2003  (17805)  (1)
           ● Re: Elephant and Blind Men - R.Shanmugasundaram  10:40:01 - 1/21/2003  (17825)  (0)
     ● Re: Elephant and Blind Men - EQF  23:19:26 - 1/15/2003  (17795)  (0)