Hi All. Thomas McEvilly who just recently passed away led the way for the work being done at Parkfield. What he discovered then is now occurring at an increasing rate and appears to be moving towards the south. It could be that the next M>6.0 quake (or greater) is just around the corner.

What Petra and I learned at the AGU has been posted here and although short in the information department does convey the message that the area in Parkfield and south is being watched closely.

McEvilly’s statement in 1995 was. “In the course of the study, conducted during what is thought to be the final portion of the interval between the last big earthquake at Parkfield and the one due to come, the frequency of small earthquakes has increased steadily, from fewer than 200 earthquakes per year to 500. At the same time, they are happening deeper in the earth, and fewer of them reside in the cluster cells. According to the scientists, these changes in seismic activity may be signals of an impending magnitude-six quake.” End of statement.

Over the last couple of years in the area south of Parkfield quakes have been occurring at a greater frequency with an increase in the magnitude. The somewhat larger ones are occurring off the fault while at the same time the much smaller ones still appear to be associated with the fault. There have been some exceptions to this. One of those exceptions was the small cluster of quakes west of Parkfield earlier this year. Not sure of the significances of this, but it may be an indication that strain in the area is nearing max.

As much as I hate waiting for something to happen it appears that this is what were doing. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• Small Quakes Lead To Big Ones