Hi Kiddo. Olga Kolbek says she knew a big earthquake was coming well before the ground shook in Loma Prieta in 1989. More than a day before the quake, her geyser's eruptions "stalled" for nearly two hours.

Kolbek, who owns California's Old Faithful Geyser near Mount Saint Helena, said she has "forecast" earthquakes for nearly 30 years based on shifts in the geyser's eruption patterns.

"There's no doubt that this is a co-seismic response," said Dr. Paul Silver, a seismologist with the Carnegie Institution of Washington. "These precursors are basically responses of Earth to slow deformations" in advance of an earthquake, Silver said. "In some ways they're accidental instruments."

However, precursors don't provide enough information to predict an earthquake, Silver said. "We have to go beyond the realm of accidental observation." On Nov. 8, 1980, a day or so before a 7.2-magnitude earthquake 100 miles off the coast near Eureka, Old Faithful's eruptions were delayed by more than two hours. Kolbek said she knew an earthquake was coming. "I knew it was going to be a big one, but I didn't know where."

That illustrates why the geyser's eruption patterns can't be used as an advanced warning system, said Stuart Rojstaczer, an associate professor of geology at Duke University. They failed to specify when, where and how big an earthquake would be, he said.

California's Old Faithful Geyser does register microstrains on Earth, said Rojstaczer, who is researching the mechanics of geysers with Silver and the U.S. Geological Survey. However, the geyser also seems sensitive to other strains, as earthquakes triggered only three of the geyser's 14 eruption delays.

When I was using the data I had a fairly high degree of certain as to where and when the quake would occur, but not how large it was going to be. As you have pointed out so often for earthquake prediction to become reality it’s going to require the disciplines of all. No one single method is going to work. Until that day arrives everyone should be prepared for the quake that is sure to come. It’s just a matter of time. After reading the other day that only 30% of the people are ready for a major quake I have to wonder if earthquake prediction will be of any use. Take Care…Cowboy