Re: 10mFM OPEN-North America
Posted by Diane on December 12, 1999 at 22:53:18:

As I read your message above, my cat Blue was running wilding about my home and tried running up one wall. I know him to be sensitive to the north of me, which is in critical right now for a moderate quake. I'd say no more than a 4.5 near Northridge or a 5.0 near San Jose.

I have come home, after day with my dad, to make two discoveries. First read this volcano report:

TUNGURAHUA 99-240 ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W

BACKGROUND: TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08)
SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M)

OURCES OF INFORMATION: GOES-8 INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY...U.S. NUMERICAL MODEL WIND FORECASTS.

ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION OF ASH AND STEAM WITH
OCCASIONAL LARGER PUFFS

DETAILS OF ASH: NO ASH PLUME IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0045 UTC DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY. VISIBLE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC DID SHOW A VERY NARROW LOW LEVEL PLUME
THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.
UPPER AIR MODEL FORECAST DATA WOULD PLACE THE PLUME BELOW FL200.
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL HOT SPOTS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.

TRAJECTORY: ANY ASH BELOW FL200 WOULD MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH
LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)

OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS AND VAFTAD.

EFFECTIVE JANUARY 3 2000 AT 0000 UTC... ALL REFERENCES TO LATITUDE
AND LONGITUDE IN VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS WILL BE IN DEGREES
AND MINUTES OF A DEGREE. EXAMPLE: 16.70N 62.20W WILL BE 1642N6212W

I draw your attention to the last paragraph; Effective January 3 2000 at 0000 UTC... What's this tell us about Y2K? The government is going to make a change in reporting the LATLONG and are confident in starting this change on 3 January. They expect to be around.

Okay? Second discovery, take a look at this site: http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif and look at the arrows against the white over California. Note the flow is from the west to the south east. While at my dad's, I watched them make contrails over the Oxnard area and they ran west to the south east. Later, they began making them over the west valley/Santa Monica Mountains and these ran west to south east. Now suppose these contrails are those arrows on the map, where do they go? Smack dab over the entire New Madrid fault! Interesting, yes?

Okay, I come home and find these EQs have occurred since this morning:

99/12/12 07:31:36 57.43N 154.26W 33.0 4.2Mb A KODIAK ISLAND REGION
99/12/12 11:43:53 6.56N 73.12W 150.0 4.4Mb B NORTHERN COLOMBIA
99/12/12 16:21:39 13.86S 76.27W 33.0 4.6Mb B NEAR COAST OF PERU
99/12/12 16:38:02 51.59N 130.69W 10.0 4.1Mb B QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS RG
99/12/12 18:12:36 39.64N 118.29W 5.0 4.0Ml A NEVADA
99/12/12 22:15:36 62.94N 149.01W 33.0 4.3Mb A CENTRAL ALASKA
99/12/12 23:24:18 2.90S 128.18E 33.0 5.5Ms B CERAM SEA

and came after yesterday's:

99/12/11 18:03:36 15.80N 119.76E 33.0 6.8Ms B LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

The Nevada quake is acturally:

MAP 4.2 99/12/12 10:12:41 39.57N 118.55W 18.3 14 mi ENE of FALLON, NV

And this is near a Naval Air Station (if it is still open?)

My TR area, which includes Mammoth North, covers this quake and confirms, I believe, a physical symptom which hit me yesterday, but I did not report. The 4.2, as reported by CALTECH, is beneath the TR PR threshold and thus, does not warrant a matching PR. This could be a foreshock to a much larger quake, which is scheduled next to be in February...according to the TR PR history to date. But, as we know, TL, RB and LS have all thrown out large quakes which were not forecasted by the Critical EQ Windows. Review of my data came up with two PRs which matched the EQs in time and magnitude, but are questionable in terms of location and age of the PRs. I have not had time to try to find a matching TL PR for the 6.8 yesterday, but feel confident that I will find one and understand the logic. In the meanwhile, let's take no chances with TR. It could be the next location to throw me a curve ball.

And you, my friend, could be right about our quake. But then, it could and should, according to the Crt.EQWin., be in RB.

Diane


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: FM OPEN-NewZealand - Yukiko L  04:59:01 - 12/13/1999  (1743)  (0)