Hi Antonio:

My condolences to you and those who have lost their children in these quakes.

The TV shows buildings standing all around the collapsed school. One must ask the question, of neccessity, what other (school or other) buildings are so constructed ? Should these other buildings be identified and backfitted to improve their resistance to seismic strains ? Perhaps the perceived costs are not as much as required ?

BTW, your analysis of the "Y" is interesting. I recollect a similar (sort of) study done by a Greek seismologist (but his name escapes me at the moment).

Regarding a prediction or forecast for this area, there is one which was posted in usenet back on 23 Sept. It identified the region within +/- 4 degrees.

>>39N 18E ...
>>&+/-4,9/28-10/10,M5.6-6.5,#251

It covered 41.72N 14.96E 10.0 5.8 A SOUTHERN ITALY. The window closed back on 10 Oct. so it looks like it would not have been real useful unless the parties involved made a decision to stay outside after the minor quake that supposedly hit the area the night prior to the first M5+ that hit.

I believe there may have been another prediction over on the JOB board.... I'm not sure if the guy using clouds had a post but I believe that some of his windows are very long. Anyway, the first predictor has some posted track record, however the others do not seem to have extensive ones (which includes the misses as well). Perhaps they will realize the need to establish a track record because without it, even a dead-on prediction will not be believed....

Saluti from USA, $.02