The World Series has them on edge
Posted by Canie on October 19, 2002 at 08:41:55:

This was found in the Reuter's Oddly Enough section (I wonder how many reporters chose not to cover the world series?):

Quirks predict California quake
Fri Oct 18, 8:18 PM ET

By Gina Keating

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The prognosticators are at war over whether a full moon on Monday will produce California's next big earthquake (news - web sites).

Among the signs that it will: the San Francisco Giants are in another all-California World Series. Among the signs that it won't: not enough cats have run away.

Thirteen years after a 6.9 magnitude tremor shook San Francisco, causing much damage and the postponement of the third game of the 1989 World Series -- the last to feature two California teams -- some earthquake predictors say conditions are ripe for another Fall Classic shaker.

In "Predicting the Next Great Quake," written in 1996, author David Nabhan published an earthquake almanac for Southern California that pinpointed Monday as a likely earthquake day because of a lining up of the moon, sun and Earth, known as "syzygy" (SISS-a-gee).

Although seismologists at the U.S. Geological Survey (news - web sites) said predicting large and destructive earthquakes (news - web sites) is impossible, Nabhan and others subscribe to the theory that most large earthquakes happen during full moon or new moon syzygies.

Jim Berkland, a San Jose geologist and devoted syzygist, predicted and named the World Series quake five days before it happened in an article in his local newspaper.

Berkland, who once worked at USGS (news - web sites), claims 75 percent accuracy at predicting "the big ones" by consulting the planetary alignments -- and the "Lost and Found" section to calculate how many dogs and cats have run away from home.

He also consults the geyser at Calistoga, California, to find out if its regular eruptions have been interrupted. After a careful reading of these potential harbingers, Berkland told Reuters the chances of a repeat are at 10 percent.

"I'll call him wrong right now," Berkland said of Nabhan's almanac. "There aren't enough collaborating signs. You would have to see a lot of water-level changes, whale beachings, rats and mice running around in broad daylight, seagulls flying inland."

Nabhan could not be reached for comment.

Although reputable studies have shown a slight -- 1 percent -- correlation between earthquakes during a full moon, the size of quakes is determined by how long it takes for the shaking to stop, said Lucy Jones, USGS scientist-in-charge for Southern California.

"There has never been any demonstrated correlations of large earthquakes with the full moon," Jones said. "This is not science -- whatever they are trying to do. If doing the easy things like the full moon worked, we would be doing it."

Jones placed the chances of a World Series earthquake at 1 in 4,000 -- the same odds as on any random 21 hours, her estimated time for the Giants-Anaheim Angels series to last.

In any case, the teams are scheduled for a travel day and workout in San Francisco's new stadium on Monday -- which is as earthquake-proof as modern technology could make it, a team spokeswoman said.

"We don't play till Tuesday," said Giants spokeswoman Shana Daum. "There are many things beyond our control, which earthquakes are, but our building ... is top of the line."



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: The World Series has them on edge - EQF  13:12:30 - 10/19/2002  (17093)  (1)
        ● Re: The World Series has them on edge - Petra Challus  17:33:33 - 10/19/2002  (17096)  (0)