Hi All,

Don sent me the link to this article from Japan Today on-line yesterday and it's quite interesting, so I thought I would share it with you....Petra

Tama-chan may be harbinger of earthquake

Ever since a bearded seal showed up in the Tama River last month, Tokyoites have been going ga-ga. The seal was even given a pet name — Tama-chan. Nonplussed by all the attention, Tama-chan has moved to the Tsurumi River for an extended summer vacation while the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport wonders what to make of him.

The arrival of Tama-chan, who normally lives in the Arctic Circle, could be an omen from Mother Nature, say some university researchers who suggest that he might be a harbinger of an earthquake.

Certainly, Tama-chan's visit is rare, says Shinichi Hayama, an instructor at Nippon Veterinary and Animal Science University, said. "Sometimes, bearded seals are washed ashore throughout Japan and are often weak and die. But seing Tama-chan on TV, he looks good. This is fairly unusual.

"In April and May, he was probably wandering between Hokkaido and Tohoku. Maybe he was searching for food and got lost and ended up in the Tama River," Hayama said.

While bearded seals usually live around the Arctic Circle, they have been seen in the Sea of Okhotsk and off the coast of Hokkaido. The fact that one has come this far south has some people suggesting there has been a climate change.

"In 1993, a tsunami killed 193 people on Okushiri island located southwest of Hokkaido. Before it struck, residents recall seeing unusually large numbers of mice," said Satoru Kikuchi, an associate professor at Shinshu University specializing in cognitive psychology. "And before the Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995, it was reported that dogs grew restless. If you look up old records of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, you'll find references to an unusually high fish catch before the disaster.

"Tama-chan might only be following a school of fish, so it would be premature to say he is an omen of disaster. But if more seals turn up, that's a different story," added Kikuchi.

Natural harbingers of disaster are nothing new. Everyone has heard stories of odd cloud formations, strange behavior by fish, birds, dogs and cats before an earthquake. Possible indications of earthquakes have been extensively studied since the 1960s.

Masakazu Ohtake, the chairman of the coordinating committee for earthquake prediction in Japan and a professor at Tohoku University, said, "In 1975 before an undersea earthquake occurred off China, evacuation of coastal areas was urged beforehand because animals in zoos went wild. As a result, the loss of human life was minimized."

Continued Ohtake: "I have been informed of such signs of calamity many times. I'd say 99% of them are meaningless, but I cannot ignore the remaining 1%. Since the mechanism of how earthquakes occur is not completely understood yet, a variety of phenomena may very likely be considered signs."

Then, how about Tama-chan? Is he a sign? Hayama said, "There must be a reason why the seal came to Tokyo Bay because it originally lives in the Arctic Ocean. Creatures living in the ocean are pretty sensitive to changes of environment, and conditions in the sea are reflected in the behavior of marine creatures."

However, most scientists think Tama-chan just followed his food. But they do note that a large number of sardines — which are food for seals — emerged just before the great earthquake in 1923.

Yoshibumi Tomida, a professor emeritus at Tokyo University specializing in seismology, said, "Based on my 10-year-long research, I'm sure that the fish catch is closely connected with earthquakes. The reason is chemical. For instance, when chemical matter emerges from an undersea volcano, fish react to it and gather in much greater numbers. Thus, the fish catch increases."

On the other hand, according to a survey by the Fisheries Agency, the sardine catch for the first half of the year sharply decreased — 85% down compared to the same period last year. Tsuneji Rikitake, the former vice chairperson of the coordinating committee for earthquake prediction, countered: "A larger than normal fish catch is certainly unusual but so is a sudden decrease."

Ryukyu University seismology professor Masaaki Kimura indicated, "Recently, numerous whales have been beached. This may be because of abnormal magnetic fields. In Tama-chan's case, it might be the same."

September 7, 2002
Volume 34 Number 36