Perigee at Oct 6 13:33 356919 km
New Moon at Oct 6 11:18

My predictions were based on using Oct 6 12:00 as a center point, approximating the middle-of-the-road between Perigee and New Moon.

This quake hit on Oct 10 10:50:20 2002 UTC, or just under 4 days later. Perhaps my alternate prediction was on track, but off scale? Instead of taking a window starting with the syzygy (approximated by Oct 6, 12:00 GMT) and ending 72 hrs later (to maintain a 3 day window), perhaps I should have slid the window farther past the syzygy.

Comments?

I still believe it to be nearly impossible to predict earthquakes with any certainty, but this event helps to show that while inaccurate, the science and logic are sometimes backed by events - even if the events don't recognize the validity of the prediction and happen on their own schedule.