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Posted by Roger Hunter on October 09, 2002 at 13:14:51:
Hi all; Here's a new quiz for you; which set of windows is better, A or B? In each case, a "." marks a day without quakes, a"*" is a quake and the
"^^^^^" is a prediction window. There are 60 days in the time period.
Each set has 5 predictions for "a quake in the 5 day window".
Set A
*
* *
* *
* * *
* * * * * * **
*.*..*.*..*...*..*.**.*.*...*......*......*.....***...**....
^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
Set A has 18 of 35 quakes in its' windows.
Set B
*
* *
* *
* *
* * * * * * **
*.*..*.*..*...*..*.**.*.*...*......*..*...*.....***...**....
^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
Set B has 5 of 35 quakes in its' windows.
This is more of an example than a test because Set A is clearly better
with 5 hits to Set B's 4 hits. Again, the number of quakes doesn't matter.The point of this group is to show that clusters can work either for or
against you, which is why we remove them. If we considered the number of
quakes in windows Set A would be considered MUCH better and it isn't. Discussion anyone? Roger
Follow Ups:
● Ooops! Duplicate post, please ignore. - Roger Hunter 14:00:57 - 10/9/2002 (16985) (0)
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