Posted by EQF on September 26, 2002 at 17:51:54:
Hi Don. As you undoubtedly know the following fairly strongly felt earthquake has now occurred: 2002/09/25 18:14:48 16.97N 99.85W 33.0 5.1 A GUERRERO, MEXICO (NEIS data) With the earthquake forecasting computer programs which I am now using, if someone proposes that an earthquake might be about to occur somewhere I can instruct the programs to compare my own recently detected warning signals with previous earthquakes in that area and see if there are any matches. And after seeing your note about a possible earthquake in Mexico I did that and the programs identified the following Mexico (87W – 117W & 15N – 33N) earthquakes as the top four candidates. As you can see, they are fairly good matches. 2002/06/19 21:50:10 16.57N 97.82W 33.0 5.2 2002/06/07 16:02:57 16.08N 96.55W 33.0 4.7 2001/03/05 11:43:54 15.40N 98.55W 33.0 4.1 2001/03/05 10:17:33 17.24N 99.82W 33.0 4.9 The point is, perhaps the best way to forecast earthquakes at this point in time is to compare data from multiple sources. This is what I understand is done in the vast program being run in the People’s Republic of China. And although I myself do not usually post forecasts to public locations I do periodically circulate that type of information for free to other forecasters around the world. Finally, your comments regarding visions and bridges appeared to be contradictions. If you are detecting “vision” type data then I consider that information to be important. Some forecast data like that can be quite valuable. Until I hear otherwise I will assume that your comments regarding the bridges were meant as an attempt at humor. These are personal opinions.
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