This article was just released ... Doesn't quite seem like news to me...

Quake Prediction Model Called Faulty
Fri Sep 20, 3:13 PM ET

By ANGELA WATERCUTTER, Associated Press Writer

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - A new Stanford University study could
undermine a long-held theory that helps geologists forecast earthquakes
( news - web sites).

The theory holds that earthquakes are "time-predictable," meaning the
energy buildup that causes them happens on a somewhat regular basis.
But the scientists found that wasn't the case in a rather geologically
simple area of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield.

Stanford geophysicists Jessica Murray and Paul Segall reported in the
Sept. 12 issue of the journal Nature that their research in Parkfield
shows the time prediction model failed in what should have been an
ideal locale for its application.

"I think that this will lead people to realize how uncertain this model is,"
Murray said.

The findings suggest that it could be even harder to apply the theory
accurately in complex fault regions such as the San Francisco Bay area.

Scientists in Parkfield have been waiting for a substantial earthquake (
news - web sites) since 1988, when time prediction said the area was
due for a quake. Midsize earthquakes have hit the area roughly every 22
years since 1857.

The Stanford researchers used a long history of data on the frequency of
earthquakes at Parkfield, as well as data on how much the earth had
moved. They found there was enough energy for an average-size quake
in 1988.

But no quake has come. And the current interval between earthquakes
at Parkfield — 36 years and counting — is one of the longest on record,
according to Murray.

Ross Stein of the U.S. Geological Survey ( news - web sites) in Menlo
Park said the findings suggest the Parkfield site can be as irregular as
anything else in nature.

"On the one hand it's almost one complete cycle late, yet we have to
acknowledge we see that kind of variability everywhere," Stein said.

Earthquakes are caused by the constant scraping of the continental
plates. When the ground gets stuck, it jerks loose in sudden bursts that
shake the ground. What scientists still hope to determine is how to
predict when they will happen.

Even if the Stanford findings lead to dismissal of the time-prediction
theory, there are still other theories scientists can investigate and use.
Some attempt to predict the size of the shake, but not when it will
happen. Others look at how earthquakes interact to anticipate where the
next section of earth will break.

"It's an important study, and every time we can test something we
assume, we're ahead of the game no matter what the consequences,"
Stein said.