Earthquake forecasting – the technology has now matured
Posted by EQF on August 22, 2002 at 22:29:34:

Towards the end of this report there is some information regarding earthquake triggering and geomagnetic storms.

The first part of this report is the text of a report which I just posted to several Internet Newsgroups including sci.geo.earthquakes.

SUMMARY: An earthquake forecasting program which I am running which relies heavily on complex computer programs is now I feel producing moderately accurate results. I believe that more advanced versions of those computer programs could be developed fairly easily. And they would then enable governments, research groups, and individual forecasters around the world to effectively evaluate certain types of earthquake precursor data and generate accurate earthquake forecasts.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.

My earthquake forecasting program has three major parts. The first involves collecting earthquake precursor data which my present theories propose might represent a variety of low frequency radio wave fluctuations which are being generated before many of our earthquakes. The second part is a collection of computer programs which generate data such as information regarding the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky and the location of ocean and Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs for the times when precursors are detected and when earthquakes occur. And the third part consists of computer programs which match precursor data with earthquake data.

The computer programs in that second program part are I feel the key to successfully forecasting earthquakes. I expect that they would work with a variety of earthquake precursors. Unfortunately, the programs which I myself am presently using do not generate data with the type of accuracy which is really needed. More sophisticated ones need to be developed. They would generate synthetic data regarding how fault zones around the world are being bent, stretched, and compressed at any point in time.

At the moment I myself do not have the types of resources available which would be needed to create those more advanced computer programs. However, earlier this month I got an official program running which I am hoping will eventually make that possible should all other efforts to get them created fail.

It might eventually be learned that this particular approach to forecasting earthquakes is not the most accurate or reliable one which could be developed. However, as I previously stated, my present forecasting program which is based on this approach is already generating what I feel are moderately accurate forecasts. And I believe that this approach could provide governments etc. around the world with at least some ability to forecast earthquakes in a relatively short period of time.

The following report contains more information regarding this subject matter:

Earthquake Triggering, Precursors, and Sensitivity
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html

If you have observed that your pet dog or cat acts strangely before earthquakes occur then you might find that report to be interesting.

FIJI AREA EARTHQUAKES

On August 19, 2002 a number of powerful earthquakes occurred in the Fiji Islands area. I believe that they were probably important sources of energy for several groups of fairly strong earthquake warning type signals which I had detected during earlier weeks.

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND GEOMAGNETIC STORMS

I believe that my data are clearly indicating that earthquake triggering times are usually controlled by forces related directly and/or indirectly to the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon. They also clearly indicate to me that geomagnetic storms can have a strong impact on the strength and frequency of the earthquake warning type signals which I myself am monitoring. This suggests the following to me:

Both earthquakes and warning signals are occurring at distinct times during the day. And those times might have windows of perhaps plus or minus 5 minutes each. If geomagnetic storms are in fact having some effect on earthquake triggering times then the most likely sounding explanation to me would be that they are doing that by jumping the triggering times forward or backwards in time from their originally scheduled time windows to other time windows. Depending on circumstances, those time window shifts might be hours, days, or even weeks or longer in length.



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Forever More For EQF - Petra Challus  09:59:54 - 8/24/2002  (16567)  (0)
     ● A clarification - EQF  23:23:16 - 8/23/2002  (16566)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake forecasting – the technology has now matured - EQF  18:53:23 - 8/23/2002  (16564)  (1)
        ● Questions for other earthquake forecasters - EQF  19:22:11 - 8/23/2002  (16565)  (0)
     ● Re: Question - Petra Challus  23:09:57 - 8/22/2002  (16561)  (0)