Predicting an Earthquake

Although a great deal is known about where earthquakes are likely to occur, there is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an event will occur in any specific location.. The USGS is thus focusing its research efforts on developing long-range earthquake probability forecasts in seismically active urban areas. The only on-going USGS research in earthquake prediction is the Parkfield Prediction Experiment.

Predicting Earthquakes
-by Louis Pakiser and Kaye M. Shedlock, USGS

Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?
-debate in Nature

Earthquake Prediction Information
- by Ruth Ludwin, University of Washington.

Research Activities at Parkfield, California

Assessment of Schemes for Earthquake Prediction
-Royal Astronomical Society meeting abstracts

Earthquake Prediction, Societal Implications
-Keitti Aki, Univ. Southern California, from Reviews of Geophysics

Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted
-Robert J. Geller, David D. Jackson, Yan Y. Kagan, Francesco Mulargia, from Science

Papers from an NAS Colloquium on Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge

• USGS's - Predicting an Earthquake