Why earthquakes are NOT being predicted
Posted by EQF on July 12, 2002 at 14:21:13:

These are personal opinions.

The following report briefly outlines two approaches to forecasting earthquakes which I believe we could be using right now. One would rely on information collected from people who are “earthquake sensitive.” The other would rely on certain types of precursor data combined with data regarding how earthquake fault zones are being bent, stretched, and compressed at any point in time.

Earthquake triggering, earthquake precursors, and earthquake sensitivity
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html

1. Regarding that first approach, there are simply no organized groups that I am aware of which are interested in collecting earthquake warning data from people who are earthquake sensitive. For a number of years, the late retired government scientist Chris Dodge ran an informal version of such a program called “Project Migraine.” But it did not have the type of organized structure needed in order for it to be effective.

2. It took me a long time to discover why scientists are not trying to use that second approach. I was able to determine this in just the last month. And it explains why people are not discussing this subject matter in notes posted to this bulletin board.

The answer is that no one has the ability to generate the types of data which would be needed. There is presently no good way to tell what is taking place in fault zones around the world.

In the June, 2002 issue of Geology magazine there was a paper published which I feel showed how easy it can be to forecast earthquakes when you do have those types of data available. In that case researchers were using sensors on the ocean floor to record water pressure and to detect earthquakes. And I believe that Figure 4A in that report clearly demonstrated what a good correlation there was between low tide levels and the occurrence of earthquakes in the area.

Those data were useful for only that area. And as I stated, in order to generate data for other areas I believe that the right type of computer program needs to be developed. Based on my own research I feel that it would work. I myself am using sun and moon position and ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location data to indirectly determine what is taking place in fault zones around the world. Unfortunately, the best data that I can generate are still difficult to work with. And they are really not exactly what is needed.

Once again, if you want to know why scientists are not discussing this particular approach to forecasting earthquakes, the answer appears to be relatively simple. They do not have the type of data available that they would need to discuss the approach. And so they are not saying anything about it. When I ask them geology related questions which they can answer they are usually more than happy to express an opinion. In fact they will at times send me more information than I can possibly use.



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Why earthquakes are NOT being predicted - Don In Hollister  15:34:56 - 7/12/2002  (16274)  (1)
        ● Re: Why earthquakes are NOT being predicted - EQF  18:32:12 - 7/12/2002  (16278)  (1)
           ● Re: Why earthquakes are NOT being predicted - Petra Challus  22:06:38 - 7/12/2002  (16283)  (1)
              ● Re: Why earthquakes are NOT being predicted - Canie  10:53:58 - 7/13/2002  (16285)  (0)