Lowell;

Since .02 was using my program, I repeated the test.

Using a NEIC search for all quakes >= 3.0 in the area bounded by 33-35N, 115-118W from 1973 - 2002 I found 3328 quakes and 1096 ten day windows. Of these, 781 had one or more quakes for a probability of 71.3%

My program uses the Jones calculation so clusters have little effect.

Your argument that a shorter time span reflects current conditions is valid but care must be taken that unusual conditions not be taken as typical.

Roger