Someone on this forum mentioned that the number of Hector Mines aftershocks was low compared to what would be expected. I decided to check this out using the Jones-Reasonberg formula. It predicts that there should be about 7 aftershocks of magnitude 4.0 or larger from 1 week to 2 weeks after the event. However, I found there were only 2. For magnitude 3.0 or greater it predicts 53 events where there were only 31. My guess is, and it is only a guess, that the forumula was derived for an area around Los Angeles and maybe it doesn't apply for this desert area east of LA.

I find if a "de-rate" the Hector Mines to a magnitude 6.7 instead of 7.0, I get roughly the right numbers. This applies to an earlier prediction by Dennis where I said he had a 91% chance of being right. I now change this to 76%. Also, the expected number of Hector Mines events in Dennis' window was 2. With this new computation it drops to about 1 and there was 1 event.