The M-class flare, the Simi Valley Ml 2.1 and Don's forecast
Posted by Lowell on May 06, 2002 at 23:20:20:

Thanks for the posting on the M-class solar flare, Petra.
I find it interesting that a Ml 2.1 occurred about 1.5 hours later in the
Simi Valley, CA area. This event is the largest in the general L.A. region
Since April 13, when a Ml 2.8 occurred and the first Ml>=2 events since
A Ml 2.0 on April 18 in the region 34-35N 118-119W. Since this is the
First such event in nearly a month, it is particularly noteworthy that it follows
The first M-class solar flare since April 30 (About a week ago) by less than
2 hours. As some readers of this board may be aware, the swarms of events
in this region earlier this year and last were commonly associated with
strong flares or geomagnetic storms.

It is also interesting that Don had a forecast for the area which was correct
In all particulars for this event. Don had posted on April 30 a forecast for
An event in the San Fernando area within 35 km of 34.3N 118.4W to occur
On May 8 +/- 2 days with Ml 2.0-3.3.
The event this evening occurred at:

O: 07MAY2002 05:28:26 34.3N 118.7W ML= 2.1 NW of Simi Valley, CA

Source:

http://www.scecdc.scec.org/scecusers/.plan


Don's forecast was correct in time, location within 35 km and magnitude. This
Is another fully successful hit for Don - the third today (see other posts).

Don's forecast can be found below or at the following URL:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15376.html


San Fernando, Santa Clarita, California Earthquake Forecast (2.3-3.8)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 30, 2002 at 22:47:36:

Magnitude: 2.0-3.3
From: 05/06/2002UTC - To: 05/10/2002UTC
Location: San Fernando, California
Lat: 34.3N - Long: 118.4W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. Were having a special today. Two quakes for the price of one.

The first one is a 2.0 to 3.3 at 34.3N/118.4W. This is about 5Km NE or San Fernando, California.

Should occur on 05/08/2002. The window will open on 05/06/2002 and will close on 05/10/2002.

The radius for this will be 35 Km.