Don's Whakatane, New Zealand forecast - a HIT
Posted by Lowell on May 06, 2002 at 17:37:20:

Hi Folks,
I've only got a minute, but wanted to check in and
Congratulate Don on his latest successful forecast. Don had
Forecast and event to occur in northern North Island, New
Zealand of Ml 3-4 on May 2-6 at 38S 177E. GNS has
Just released the following announcement of a felt earthquake
Today in that area:


http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/index.html

2002 May 6 10:22
NZ Standard Time: 2002 May 6 10:22 p.m.
Latitude, Longitude: 38.26°S 176.44°E
Focal Depth: 5 km
Richter Magnitude: 2.9

20 km south-east of Rotorua

May have been felt in the Rotorua-Tarawera area

This earthquake matches all the parameters of Don's forecast -
Within the time window, within 65 km (barely) and within
The magnitude range (I always give credit for +/- 0.1 unit of
Magnitude since determined magnitudes easily vary by that
Much for the same event. Congratulations, Don on another
HIT!!

Don's original forecast is below or at this URL:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15226.html

Whakatane, New Zealand Earthquake Forecast (3.0-4.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 25, 2002 at 18:56:02:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.0
From: 05/02/2002UTC - To: 05/06/2002UTC
Location: whakatane, New Zealand
Lat: 38.0S - Long: 177.1E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. Have my passport all in order. I hope. Looking for a 3.0 to 4.0 quake at 38.0S/177.1E.
This is about 10Km SE of Whakatane, New Zealand. Hope I pronounced that right.

Should occur on 05/04/2002. The window will open on 05/02/2002 and will close on 05/06/2002.

The radius for this will be 65Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town