QUIET SEISMIC CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS

SUMMARY

Seismicity was unusually quiet in all areas today. Only three
events were located by teleseismic networks; the swarms at Coso
Junction and Off the North Coast of California had diminished and
other seismicity was either not reported or at low levels today
(May 5, 2002)

GLOBAL

Three events were identified today - a Mb 5.0 in south-central
Chile; a Ml 4.3 in the Kuril Islands; and a Mb 5.1 in the Fiji Islands.
Additional activity will probably be reported tomorrow when
networks are back in full operation after the weekend slowdown.

U.S./CANADA

The largest event thus far listed in the U.S. of Canada today
was a Ml 3.7 on the Alaska Peninsula west of Anchorage, AK. No
earthquakes or Ml>=3 were recorded in Hawaii today.
Two events of Ml>=3 occurred in the California/Nevada region -
a Ml 3.2 near San Juan Bautista in Central California and a Ml 3.1
off the Coast of Northern California in that current swarm.
Three other earthquakes of Ml>=2 occurred in northern and
Central CA - W of Portola (Ml 2.2); another aftershock off the
coast of No. California (Ml 2.8); and a Ml 2.0 shock near Lassen
Peak in No. California. SCSN reported on an additional 4 events of
Ml>=2 today - two near Baker (Ml 2.2, 2.0); a Ml 2.1 north of
Big Bear Lakes this afternoon and a Ml 2.0 ESE of Anza, in Southern
California.
The strongest quake listed outside of the California/Nevada
area in the U.S./Canada was a Ml 2.2 near Alta, Wyoming.
Reports from other areas were not available.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS listed a small Ml 2.9 in North Central North Island
this morning near Taupo. Otherwise, the on-line seismometer
has been quiet today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today. There were no
X- or M-class flares observed on the sun.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020505events.txt

TIDAL EFFECTS

May 07 is the twenty-fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 21 2.5 0.04
Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 58 2.5 0.04
Yellowstone MB>=1.0 31 3.3 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY

GLOBAL:

The following events of Mw>=7 have occurred on this date in
recorded history:

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 6 00 00 1622 17 98 Mexico
Severe Damage at MEXICO: ZACATECAS

5 6 00 00 1862 23.300 120.300 Taiwan CHIAI,CHANGHUA 178
Moderate damage recorded.

5 6 18 59 43 1912 64.000 -20.000 60 7.5 Iceland area
Maximum intensity XI.

5 6 19 41 12 1919 -5.000 154.000 25 8.1 New Britain
5 6 22 34 23 1930 38.100 44.600 25 7.3 Turkey
Estimated 2514 killed, maximum Intensity X in Iran and eastern Turkey

5 6 20 30 32 1947 -6.500 148.500 60 7.6 New Ireland
5 6 23 08 1951 13.0 -87.8 100 6.5 El Salvador
Severe damage throughout the area. 400 killed.

5 6 17 16 49 1953 -36.500 -72.500 60 7.6 Central Chile
Nineteen killed, estimatd damage $32 million in Central Chile.

5 6 19 0 14 1962 -60.200 -33.500 33 7.0 Southern Ocean
5 0 20 00 1976 46.4 13.1 6.5 Italy/Austria
Nine Hundred twenty-nine killed, $8 billion estimated property damage in
NE Italy

U.S./CANADA

Following are events of Mb>=5 which have occurred in this region on

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 6 16 40 0 1910 37.330 -118.420 0 5.5 California/Nevada area
Near Bishop. Felt strongly at Bishop, northern end of Owens Valley,
and in Rock Creek Canyon to the northwest where there were rockslides.
Felt at Bakersfield, Hollister and Sacramento,

5 6 12 9 0 1915 39.500 -126.500 0 6.8 Off Coast California
5 6 1 10 0 1934 42.000 -113.000 0 5.0 Montana/Idaho
5 6 4 36 6 1934 41.700 -112.800 0 5.5 Montana/Idaho
5 6 8 9 42 1934 41.700 -112.800 0 5.6 Montana/Idaho
Northern Utah. This was the strongest aftershock of the March 12 earthquake
Minor Damage. People left houses in Salt Lake City.

5 6 20 57 16 1956 54.500 -162.500 0 5.8 Unimak Islands, Aleutians
5 6 15 26 36 1964 56.700 -152.100 15 6.0 Southern Alaska
5 6 19 54 49 1984 51.688 -176.774 58 5.6 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 13 53 6 1985 43.743 -127.095 10 5.0 Off Coast of Oregon
5 6 4 6 15 1987 51.300 -179.800 30 6.6 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 4 12 43 1987 50.952 -179.991 51 5.2 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 4 18 27 1987 51.071 -179.790 55 5.1 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 5 18 24 1987 50.981 -179.920 33 5.1 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 10 34 5 1991 53.450 -164.100 33 5.4 Unimak Islands, Aleutians
5 6 14 12 58 1991 51.660 -173.580 33 5.3 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 6 1 31 24 1997 61.564 -149.718 31 5.3 Central Alaska
5 6 4 19 27 1999 56.478 -152.863 25 5.1 Southern Alaska

Lowell Whiteside
May 5, 2002

EARTHQUAKE/FORECAST COMPARISONS

ASIA

O: 6MAY2002 03:01:53 24.3N 121.9E ML=4.5 TAI Ilan, Taiwan

O: 5MAY2002 13:28:00 23.6N 121.7E ML=4.4 TAI Ilan, Taiwan

O: 5MAY2002 01:40:57 45.4N 149.1E MS=4.3 GSR KURIL ISLANDS

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 5MAY2002 16:49:41 19.3S 177.4W mb=5.1 GSR FIJI ISLANDS REGION

CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 5MAY2002 09:39:42 17.1N 100.1W ML=3.5 SSN GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 4MAY2002 20:52:57 16.7N 99.8W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 4MAY2002 13:09:49 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 5MAY2002 05:53:51 35.0S 70.7W MB=5.0 NEI CHILE-ARGENTINA BORDER RE

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

OCEANIA

EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

O: 5MAY2002 12:40:39 40.5N 28.3E ML=3.0 KAN MARMARA SEA, TURKEY
O: 5MAY2002 12:22:09 40.5N 28.3E ML=4.3 KAN MARMARA SEA, TURKEY
Note: This earthquake in the Marmara Sea near Istambul is the largest
in that region since March 23, 2002 when a Ml 4.8 occurred.
It occurred near the CMBSZ and was an expected FFA:

"103-107 degrees***: ... western Turkey... "

O: 5MAY2002 02:26:25 40.7N 30.9E ML=3.1 KAN DUZCE, TURKEY

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 5MAY2002 05:34:09 40.3N 124.6W ML=3.1 NCSN WNW of Punta Gorda, CA

O: 5MAY2002 05:48:30 36.9N 121.6W ML=3.2 NCSN NW of San Juan Bautista, CA

O: 5MAY2002 00:18:32 37.3N 122.1W ML=1.2 NCSN SW of Cupertino, CA

O: 5MAY2002 00:26:44 34.8N 116.3W ML=2.7 SCSN NW of Ludlow, CA

O: 5MAY2002 08:18:48 39.8N 122.9W ML=2.0 NCSN NNW of Alder Springs, CA

O: 5MAY2002 16:23:18 39.8N 120.7W Md=2.2 NCSN W of Portola, CA

O: 5MAY2002 14:56:43 40.3N 124.5W ML=2.8 NCSN NW of Punta Gorda, CA

O: 5MAY2002 15:20:49 34.3N 116.9W ML=2.1 SCSN NW of Big Bear City, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 5MAY2002 01:55:38 43.6N 110.6W MD=2.1 USBR S of Kelly, WY

O: 5MAY2002 10:03:58 43.9N 110.9W MD=2.2 USBR NNE of Alta, WY

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

ALASKA

O: 5MAY2002 07:20:32 56.0N 157.3W ML=3.8 AEIC Anchorage, Alaska

HAWAII