ALL AREAS RETURN TO BACKGROUND OR HIGHER SEISMICITY

SUMMARY

A series of seismic quiet streaks have been ended in recent
days - a long quiet in Southern California with a swarm at
Coso Junction/Lake Isabella with maximum event Ml 3.8 among
others. For the past three days an uneasy global quiet, the longest
in nearly 3 years without an event in the world of Ml>=5 has
been occurring (see yesterday's summary - May 2).
Shortly after the summary outlining this global quiet had
been posted, the quiet was broken by a Mb 5.0 near Kamchatka.
This was followed by a series of other events around the world
in the M>=5 range (see global section below).
Seismicity in the California/Nevada area also appeared to
be slightly higher than background today, so perhaps that event
in southern California south of 35N is not too far distant.

GLOBAL

The strongest activity of the day was on the mid-Arctic ridge
near the North Geographic pole and north of Svalbard. The event
of Mb 5.4 was followed by a Mb 5.1 aftershock in this locality.
The Mb 5.4 was the third largest earthquake within 200 km of this
epicenter - the others were a Mb 5.5 on Feb. 23 1993 and a Mb 5.8
on July 31, 1964. Only 7 events have ever been recorded in this
area of Mb>=5, so today's two events of Mb>=5 represented the
strongest daily activity ever recorded in this area of the Arctic
Ocean.
A number of other mid-ocean ridges were also active today and
for the past three days. This mid-Ocean ridge activity began at
the end of April, and had been expected in the daily summary as
a reaction to the X1.5 flare on April 23 and the strong geomagnetic
storms from April 19 to 25. Earthquakes on mid-ocean ridges are normally
delayed 5-7 days afters such solar and geomagnetic activity.

The Daily Summary of earthquakes (This bulletin) had stated on
April 26, 2002:

"It [referring to an earthquake on the Indian-Antarctic ridge Mw 6.2]
also lies within the watch area for larger events expected following
the geomagnetic storm of April 17-19. The watch from that storm
had stated:

" As is usual for strong geomagnetic storms, a seismic watch is being
issued for a possible moderate or strong earthquake within 30 degrees
longitude of 120W or 60E or at high latitudes (>45 N or S) for the
next three days. Small events in these regions may be foreshocks."

This watch was updated on April 23 when a strong geomagnetic storm
again hit while 120W and 60E were anti- and sub-solar. Emphasis had
also been made in the daily reports to the incidence of larger events
occurring 3-5 days after strong geomagnetic storms at regions which
are sub- and anti-solar; at high latitudes or on mid-ocean ridge.
All of these conditions apply to this event. The epicenter appears
to have been ideally located for extensive triggering at the time
of the earthquake."

Mid-Ocean ridge events in the past several days have included:

May 3 - North of Svalbard (Mb 5.4 and 5.1) (Arctic Mid-Ocean ridge)
May 3 - Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Mb 4.8)
May 2 - W. Indian-Antarctic Ridge (Mb 4.7) So. of Australia
May 2 - W. Indian-Antarctic Ridge (Mb 4.8) SW. of Australia
May 2 - W. Indian-Antarctic Ridge (Mb 4.8) SW. of Australia
Apr 30 Southern East Pacific Rise (Mb 4.8) - SW Pacific
Apr 30 Bouvet Islands (Mb 4.8) - South Atlantic Mid-ocean ridge
Apr 30 Iceland (Mb 4.0) Northern Atlantic mid-Ocean ridge
Apr 29 Iceland (Mb 4.3) Northern Atlantic mid-Ocean ridge
Apr 29 Reykjanes Ridge (Mb 4.2) Northern Atlantic mid-Ocean ridge
Apr 28 Galapagos Triple Junction (Mb 5.0) East PAcific Rise
Apr 28 North Mid Atlantic Ridge (central) (Mb 4.8)
Apr 28 Southern East Pacific Rise (N end) (Mb 4.6)

On average about one Mid-ocean Ridge event is recorded in 3 days,
so this group of 13 in the past 6 days represents about an 6-fold
increase in activity on these tectonic features. This is quite
typical following geomagnetic storms and X-ray flares. Another
example of this type of activity was noted in the daily summary
from March 26, 2002.

Activity was moderately active throughout much of the world today.
Earthquakes of Mb>=5 occurred SE of the Loyalty Islands (Mb 5.2);
and in New Guinea (Mb 5.0). Other earthquakes of Mb>=4.5 were
registered in Argentina (Mb 4.7), Turkey (Mb 4.5), Kamchatka (MB 4.9),
Luzon, Philippine (Mb 4.5) and Tonga (Mb 4.7). Several smaller evens were
located in Honshu (Mb 3.9) and Afghanistan (Mb 4.2) since the last
daily summary.

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in
northern Alaska (Ml 3.7 or 4.1). A Ml 3.7 was also located in
the western Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians several hours after the
northern Alaska earthquake.

Southern California has begun to show considerably increased
activity beginning with the Coso Junction swarm yesterday. Today
earthquakes of Ml>=2 occurred in the region near Ocotillo (Ml 2.3,
2.1 and 2.1); near Coso Junction (Ml 3.0, 2.3); north of San Clemente
Island (Ml 2.7); near Devore (Ml 2.1) and SSE of Borrego Springs, CA
(Ml 2.1). This increase in seismicity in southern California appears
to have begun about a week ago on April 27. During the week of
April 20-26, there were 11 events of Ml>=2 listed in the SCSN
(southern California) area - about 1.5 per day. However, during the
past week (April 27 - May 3) this has increased to 32 - a three-
fold rate increase over the previous week. Some of this may be
attributed to the Coso Junction swarm, but activity is up throughtout
all areas of the region as well.

Seismicity in northern and Central California was uneventful
today with earthquakes of Ml>=2 at Santa Rosa (Md 2.1) and
the Geysers (Md 2.0) since last report.

In the Pacific Northwest, PNSN recorded an earthquake of Ml>=3
off the coast of Oregon near the epicenter of the Mb 4.8 on
May 1. PGC did not report any new earthquakes of Ml>2 in the
region of Western Canada today.

The Yellowstone swarm continued this morning, somewhat diminished
over the activity of April 29-30. A Ml 2.2 occurred in the
Jackson Lake, WY area. In Utah earthquakes were listed today
which occurred on May 1-2 with Ml 2.1 near Lakeside, UT;
2.2 near Wellington, and 2.5 near Cedar City, Utah.

No new epicenters were available from other areas of the U.S.
or Canada at this time.

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

IGNS (New Zealand) did not report new earthquake parameters today
as it is Saturday and personnel are off.
In Australia a Ml 3.0 was reported Felt by many residents of
Eidsvold, Queensland on May 2. This was an unusual event epicenter.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There
were no X- or M- class solar flares observed.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020503events.txt

TIDAL EFFECTS

May 05, is the twenty-second day after the beginning of the new lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Aleutians MB>=4.0 27 2.0 0.05
Geysers MB>=2.0 5 1.9 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 55 2.4 0.04
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 70 3.6 0.01
Siberia MB>=4.0 38 2.1 0.05
Utah2 MB>=2.0 27 2.7 0.02
Washington MB>=0.0 95 3.2 0.01
Central California MB>=2.0 10 2.5 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 20 2.5 0.03
Global MB>=5.0 7 2.4 0.04
Hawaii MB>=2.0 20 2.9 0.02
Iran MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.3 0.05
San Andreas MB>=2.0 43 1.9 0.05
San Andreas MB>=3.0 40 2.8 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 46 3.3 0.01
Turkey MB>=4.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -1.9 0.05

TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY

GLOBAL:

The following events of Mw>=7 have occurred on this date in
recorded history:

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 4 6 51 0 1907 -7.500 153.700 60 7.7 New Britain
5 4 8 36 48 1907 28.000 141.000 200 7.0 Bonin Islands
5 4 23 36 0 1911 51.000 157.000 240 7.6 Kamchatka
Felt VII at Kamchataka

5 4 16 26 39 1923 55.500 -156.500 25 7.1 Alaska Peninsula
5 4 22 26 45 1923 -28.750 -71.750 60 7.0 Coast Central Chile
5 4 16 51 43 1924 -21.000 -178.000 560 7.3 Tonga Islands
5 4 4 36 7 1934 61.250 -147.500 80 7.2 Central Alaska
5 4 7 15 42 1959 52.500 159.500 60 8.0 Kamchatka
One killed, moderate damage. Maximum Intensity X. A tsunami was generated.

5 4 7 48 17 1972 -15.900 167.500 45 7.0 Vanuatu Islands
5 4 4 21 16 2000 -1.105 123.573 26 7.6 Sulawesi area
At least 46 killed, 264 injured, 30,000 homeless, extensive
damage and power outages occurred in the Luwuk area, Sulawesi and on
nearby islands. 80% of buldings were damaged or destroyed on Banggai
Damage also occurred on Peleng. Dozens of houses
damaged and a local marked destroyed by fire at Luwuk. Much of
the damage at Luwuk and Peleng was caused by a local tsunami with
wave heights to 6 meters maximum. Also felt at Tawau, Malaysia.

U.S./CANADA

Following are events of Mb>=5 which have occurred in this region on

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 4 16 26 39 1923 55.500 -156.500 25 7.1 Alaska Peninsula

5 4 4 36 7 1934 61.250 -147.500 80 7.2 Central Alaska
South Central Alaska. At Anchorage windows broke. Goods fell from shelves.
Felt at Cordova and Nenana.

5 4 20 44 47 1939 35.967 -114.817 0 5.0 SW U.S.A
The shocks was felt over a comparatively large area of Arizona, CA. and
NV. The maximum intensity reported was about VI. In the vicinity of
Boulder Dam, large rocks were reported to have fallen on a roadway.
In some instances this made them impassable. A heavy dust cloud was seen to the
south of Boulder Dam and was probably a result of rock falls or slides.

5 4 17 51 22 1954 74.100 -81.200 10 5.5 Nunavit/Hudson Bay, Canada
5 4 5 56 1 1963 51.800 -175.400 41 5.1 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 4 12 4 46 1964 58.200 -152.300 22 5.3 Southern Alaska
5 4 22 34 48 1967 30.416 -114.403 33 5.2 SW U.S.A
5 4 9 28 0 1969 63.500 -148.300 40 5.0 Central Alaska
5 4 7 7 8 1970 51.403 -179.218 44 5.2 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 4 2 0 20 1977 31.921 -88.176 5 5.1 Southeast U.S.
Southwest Alabama. Light furniture was shifted at Melvin.
Also felt at Yantley.

5 4 23 3 20 1984 59.225 -153.165 78 5.3 Southern Alaska
5 4 3 37 39 1989 40.537 -127.437 5 5.0 Off Coast of No. California
5 4 1 18 55 1991 36.564 -89.823 5 5.0 New Madrid area
Slight damage (VI) at Campbell, Bloomfield, Gideon, New Madrid,
Missouri. Felt in many areas of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee,
Illinois, Kentucky and Mississippi.

5 4 9 14 25 1992 44.317 -113.958 6 5.5 Montana/Idaho
Felt V at May, Bellevue and Challis, ID.

5 4 11 47 15 1994 50.000 -166.000 0 5.4 Fox Islands, Aleutians
5 4 14 24 25 2000 51.470 -178.463 33 5.5 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians

EARTHQUAKE/FORECAST COMPARISONS

ASIA

O: 3MAY2002 03:04:16 52.3N 161.0E Ms=4.9 GSSC OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.

O: 3MAY2002 03:04:20 52.5N 160.5E MB=4.8 NEI OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHAT

O: 2MAY2002 09:06:01 49.3N 156.2E MB=4.3 NEI KURIL ISLANDS

O: 2MAY2002 11:47:09 1.0N 99.2E MB=4.7 NEI N SUMATERA, INDONESIA

O: 3MAY2002 05:54:12 10.7N 126.0E MB=4.4 NEI PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

O: 3MAY2002 13:37:33 36.8N 71.5E mb=4.0 GSR AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN BO

O: 3MAY2002 08:04:31 36.6N 69.9E mb=4.3 GSR HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHAN

O: 1MAY2002 14:00:14 2.2N 126.5E MB=4.7 NEI NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 2MAY2002 03:53:22 6.4S 146.7E MB=4.8 NEI EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG.,

O: 2MAY2002 22:48:01 5.9S 146.1E MB=5.0 NEI EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG.,

O: 3MAY2002 16:03:49 22.9S 169.6E MB=5.2 NEI SE OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

O: 3MAY2002 14:52:07 15.6S 173.1W MB=4.7 NEI TONGA ISLANDS

O: 2MAY2002 13:35:54 11.0S 162.1E MB=4.3 NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS

CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 3MAY2002 02:14:06 22.7S 63.7W MB=4.8 NEI SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA

O: 30APR2002 18:35:01 30.6S 71.4W MB=4.0 NEI NEAR COAST OF CEN CHILE

O: 3MAY2002 01:34:20 17.1N 101.3W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 3MAY2002 08:21:16 16.8N 100.2W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 3MAY2002 07:47:02 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 3MAY2002 06:32:43 14.6N 93.9W ML=4.0 SSN GOLFO DE, MEXICO

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

OCEANIA

O: 3MAY2002 06:42:56 7.1N 34.2W MB=4.8 NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDG

O: 2MAY2002 18:25:28 51.8S 139.8E MS=4.8 NEI W INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

O: 3MAY2002 15:33:34 85.9N 30.0E MS=5.1 NEI NORTH OF SVALBARD
O: 3MAY2002 11:20:51 86.0N 30.9E MS=5.4 NEI NORTH OF SVALBARD

O: 2MAY2002 21:59:55 49.9S 116.1E MB=4.7 NEI W INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

O: 3MAY2002 02:18:17 37.0N 43.5E MB=4.5 NEI TURKEY

O: 30APR2002 21:24:56 43.5N 12.8E MB=4.0 NEI CENTRAL ITALY

O: 2MAY2002 14:12:44 35.3N 28.4E ML=3.4 KAN AKDENIZ, TURKEY

O: 3MAY2002 18:31:59 45.8N 26.1E mb=4.2 GSR ROMANIA

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 3MAY2002 04:38:43 36.0N 120.2W ML=1.9 NCSN NW of Avenal, CA

O: 2MAY2002 22:11:07 37.6N 122.0W ML=1.4 NCSN NNW of Union City, CA

O: 3MAY2002 01:15:41 35.7N 118.1W ML=2.2 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella,
O: 3MAY2002 01:41:21 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.9 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella,
O: 3MAY2002 02:59:58 35.7N 118.1W ML=3.0 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella,

O: 3MAY2002 11:38:24 34.3N 117.5W ML=2.1 SCSN WNW of Devore, CA

O: 3MAY2002 06:54:29 36.6N 121.3W ML=1.8 NCSN NW of Pinnacles, CA

O: 3MAY2002 11:18:58 32.7N 116.1W ML=2.1 SCSN WSW of Ocotillo, CA

O: 3MAY2002 21:02:24 38.6N 122.7W Md=2.1 NCSN NNE of Santa Rosa, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 2MAY2002 22:59:47 43.7N 129.1W ML>3.0 PNSN Off Coast of Oregon

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 3MAY2002 10:14:08 43.6N 110.6W MD=2.2 USBR S of Kelly, WY

O: 1MAY2002 17:50:25 39.7N 110.6W ML=2.2 UUSN NE of Wellington, UT

O: 1MAY2002 22:46:31 37.9N 113.4W ML=2.5 UUSN NW of Cedar City, UT

O: 2MAY2002 20:40:59 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.9 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

ALASKA

O: 3MAY2002 17:33:53 68.0N 153.2W MB=3.7 NEI NORTHERN ALASKA
O: 3MAY2002 17:33:55 67.9N 153.3W ML=4.1 AEIC Bettles, Alaska

HAWAII