GLOBAL QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE

SUMMARY

The last event listed in any teleseismic or local catalog of Mb>=5
occurred at 06:25 UT on April 30, 2002 om the Kermadec Islands,
New Zealand. Analysis of the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters
data (NEIS) shows that in only two periods in the past 3.5 years
has no earthquake of Mb>=5 occurred during a three - day period.
No event greater with magnitude greater than or equal to 5 occurred
in the period Jan 10-13, 2000 (3.09 days) and also in the period
April 26-29, 2000 (3.01 days). Currently the time since the last
Mb>=5 is about 3 days. Should the lack of such earthquakes continue
until 00:10 PDT May 3, it will represent the longest such period
since at least Jan 1, 1999 (the period analyzed).
This, on top of the long period of seismic quiet in southern
California suggests that a global factor is either preventing the
occurrence, triggered the events earlier and this is the reaction
to little strain left for triggered earthquakes, or this is a random
fluctuation in global seismicity with no relevant causes.

GLOBAL

Despite the global quiet conditions, earthquakes were recorded
today south of Australia on the Indian-Antarctic Ridge (Mb 4.8);
in New Guinea (Mb 4.8); in the Kuril Islands (Mb 4.5) and in the
Balkan area (Mb 4.0). An earthquake of Ml 4.5 also occurred near
Wellington, N.Z. this morning. It is high time for a moderate or large
earthquake. There are several regions which could experience
such an event near aftershock zones - South America for example.

U.S./CANADA

The most activity today in the U.S./Canada region occurred in
the Coso Junction/Lake Isabella area near the California/Nevada
border. The strongest event was a Ml 3.8, but Ml 3.0 and 2.9
also occurred in this area today. Also in Southern California
a Ml 2.7 occurred on the San Clemente Island region and north
in the San Fernando/Simi Valley area four microearthquakes were
recorded (Ml 1.7, 1.6, 1.4 and 1.4). The Ml 3.8 was the largest
in the SCSN coverage area since April 5, 2002 when a Hector Mine
aftershock of Ml 4.2 occurred. The Coso Junction swarm included
six events of Ml>=2.
In Central California, the largest event was a Ml 3.1 located
near Gilroy south of Livermore. Microearthquakes continued at
Alameda and aftershocks at Gilroy. A Ml 2.4 was recorded as
and aftershock of the Ml 4.4 off the northern Coast of California,
and a Ml 2.6 was also observed near Covelo, Northern California.
In the Pacific northwest/western Canada area, the largest earthquake
today was a Ml 3.3 near the Yakutat/Canada border. A Ml 2.2
was also recorded new Canby, OR. No events of Ml>=3 were listed in
either Alaska or Hawaii today.
The Yellowstone swarm continued yesterday with events of
Ml 2.3, and 2.3 in the west Yellowstone, MT area. Earthquakes of
Ml 2.2 (Price UT) and 2.1 (Lakeside, UT) also occurred. However,
the largest event in the Rocky Mountains today was a Ml 2.9
near Jackson Lake in the current aftershock/swarm sequence.
No new events were listed in the eastern U.S. or Canada today.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not list any new earthquakes today after the Ml 4.5
in the Upper Hutt/Wellington area. This earthquake was felt
widely throughout southern South Island, but especially in
the Wellington N.Z., area. Felt earthquakes area rare in this
region of New Zealand. It is possible this was an FFA from
the Guam earthquake of April 26. North Island had been expected
to see moderate or strong earthquakes during the FFA period
following that event.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There
were no X- or M-class solar flares observed.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020502events.txt

TIDAL EFFECTS

May 04 is the twenty-first day after the beginning of the new lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central California MB>=0.0 37 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 18 2.2 0.05
Central US MB>=1.0 79 3.4 0.01
East US MB>=1.0 12 2.2 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 19 2.1 0.05
Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 88 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=0.0 17 2.8 0.02
San Andreas MB>=2.0 64 2.9 0.02
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02
Geysers MB>=0.0 7 2.6 0.03
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 62 2.8 0.02
Utah MB>=0.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -19 -2.3 0.05
Global MB>=6.0 -11 -1.9 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 -11 -2.4 0.04

TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY

GLOBAL:

The following events of Mw>=7 have occurred on this date in
recorded history:

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 3 0 0 0 1875 38.100 30.200 0 7.0 Turkey
2000 killed, severe damaged in the Yaka, Ischikli, Yoril regions
of Turkey.

5 3 21 13 0 1887 31.000 -109.000 0 7.0 No. Mexico
Severe damage in the Bavispe region of northern Mexico. Nine
were killed.

5 3 13 45 0 1896 -0.510 -80.450 0 7.0 Ecuador
5 3 0 52 0 1919 40.500 145.500 60 7.6 Hokkaido, Japan
5 3 17 21 45 1925 1.500 127.000 60 7.1 Halmahera
5 3 22 59 4 1925 -34.000 58.000 60 7.0 So. Indian Ocean
5 3 1 59 12 1943 12.500 125.500 0 7.4 Luzon, Philippines
5 3 22 23 43 1946 -6.000 154.000 60 7.4 New Britain
5 3 5 56 44 1949 48.700 153.400 125 7.0 So. Kurils
5 3 23 30 19 1998 22.460 124.919 0 7.4 Taiwan
Southwest of Taiwan. A mnor local tsunami generated with
wave heights of 4 cm. Felt on Iriomote-shima, also in
Kyushu and eastern Taiwan

U.S./CANADA

Following are events of Mb>=5 which have occurred in this region on

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

5 3 1 0 0 1872 33.000 -115.000 0 5.9 Southern California
5 3 21 13 0 1887 31.000 -109.000 0 7.0 Baja California
This earthquake occurred in a very sparsely settled region and is named for the
town of Bavispe, not becuase this was the point of origin, but it is the only
village in the region. Collection of data was extremely difficult due
to the unprecedented rainy season in 1887.
Motion was felt from Toluca, near Mexico City to Albuquerque and
Santa Fe, N.M. on the north and from Guaymas, Mexico to Yuma and El
Paso Texas on the east.
There is a single large fault on the eastern margin of the San Bernardino
valley where the mesas and foothills meet. The average differene
in height on the two sides of this fault is about 7 feet, but in
some places is 26 feet.
Great numbers of cracks were found in the riverbeds. and outbursts of
water and sand through fissures were observed. At Batepito Ranch,
an area of 2 miles by 1 mile was covered with water to an average
depth of 4 inches. At first the streams and springs went dry, then they
had a greatly increased flow at least a month before the start of
the rainy seasons.
Millions of cubic feet of rock were thrown from the mountains.
Cliffs of solid rock were shattered. One narrow canyon contained
an immense amount of material from adjacent cliffs.

Bavispe was built on unconsolidated material. The principle damage
was to collapsing roofs. The chruch was completely destroyed although
it had stood for 200 years before.

Throughout the area water in tanks slopped over, railroad cars were
set in motion, chimneys were thrown down and buildings cracked.
The sound of the earthquake came from the south and moved to the north
at Tombstone, Arizona.

5 3 17 18 0 1897 37.100 -80.700 0 5.0 Kentucky/Tennessee/NC
Pulaski, Va. Strongest at Pulaski. Chimneys were damaged at Roanoke. Bricks
fell from chimneys and plaster fell from walls at Radford, Va. The
shock was felt at several Virginia towns and at Winston Salem. N.C.
There was a rumbling like thunder in the general region . Two
shocks were felt at Lenoir. N.C.

5 3 13 48 24 1962 29.100 -115.500 0 5.0 Gulf of California
West of Baja California. Chandeliers swung gently but motion not
felt.

5 3 7 32 51 1964 56.370 -154.920 1 5.0 Southern Alaska
5 3 16 13 40 1968 54.160 -163.260 17 5.0 Unimak Islands, Aleutians
5 3 4 49 5 1972 50.999 -179.229 21 5.3 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 3 10 14 14 1982 59.953 -141.163 4 5.1 Southeast Alaska
5 3 0 57 44 1983 36.204 -120.337 10 5.0 Central California
Aftershock of Coalinga earthquake.

5 3 12 7 32 1985 57.090 -150.830 3 5.1 Southern Alaska
5 3 15 5 23 1986 52.000 -171.400 0 5.2 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
5 3 23 5 18 1986 62.670 -124.230 33 5.1 Northwest Terr., Canada
5 3 2 56 26 1989 60.132 -146.975 8 5.3 Central Alaska
5 3 4 4 23 1996 47.760 -121.876 4 5.5 Washington state, U.S.
Two people injured and slight damage in the epicentral area. Felt V at
Baring, Burlington, Seattle. Felt throughout must of western
Washington east as far as Wenatchee and south to Astoria and Portland
Oregon. North to Vancouver B.C., Canada.

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

ASIA

O: 2MAY2002 03:53:30 6.5S 147.1E MB=4.7 GSSC EASTERN NEW GUINEA

O: 2MAY2002 09:06:04 49.6N 156.1E mb=4.5 GSR KURIL ISLANDS

O: 1MAY2002 18:54:29 33.3N 75.0E ML=3.7 ASC W of Gul (Jammu & KHZ

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 2MAY2002 03:53:22 6.4S 146.7E MB=4.8 NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 1MAY2002 17:53:15 11.0N 86.7W MC=3.6 SIS Nicaragua, Central America

O: 1MAY2002 18:56:59 18.0S 70.6W ML>4.0 RES Arica, Chile
O: 1MAY2002 01:02:53 19.6S 69.3W ML>4.0 RES Chiapa, Chile

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 2MAY2002 06:49 41.1S 174.7E ML=4.5 IGNS West of Porirua, N.Z.
Note: IGNS Felt in Wellington.

OCEANIA

O: 2MAY2002 18:25:28 51.9S 139.8E MS=4.8 NEI W INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

O: 2MAY2002 14:12:44 35.3N 28.4E ML=3.4 KAN AKDENIZ, TURKEY

O: 30APR2002 21:24:44 43.7N 12.5E ML=3.5 STR ITALIE (REGION DE SAINT-M 15

O: 2MAY2002 01:53:10 46.7N 8.8E ML=2.3 STR SUISSE (SUD-EST DE LUCERN 13

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 2MAY2002 06:00:15 35.7N 118.1W ML=3.8 NEI CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 1MAY2002 23:02:27 35.7N 118.1W ML=3.0 NEI CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 1MAY2002 23:03:41 35.7N 118.1W ML=2.9 NEI CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 1MAY2002 16:02:27 35.7N 118.1W ML=3.0 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella,
O: 01MAY2002 20:55:19 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.9 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 01MAY2002 23:00:14 35.7N 118.1W ML=3.8 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 01MAY2002 23:48:04 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.9 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 01MAY2002 23:51:57 35.7N 118.1W ML=2.4 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 02MAY2002 00:03:42 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.7 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 02MAY2002 00:11:02 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.4 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 02MAY2002 00:12:11 35.7N 118.1W ML=1.8 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 02MAY2002 01:05:48 35.7N 118.1W ML=2.3 SCSN ENE of town of Lake Isabella, CA

O: 1MAY2002 16:05:12 34.4N 118.4W ML=1.7 SCSN E of Newhall, CA
O: 2MAY2002 00:23:47 34.1N 118.4W ML=1.6 SCSN NNW of Century City, CA
O: 3MAY2002 01:42:19 34.3N 118.4W ML=1.4 SCSN N of San Fernando, CA

O: 1MAY2002 23:35:01 37.0N 121.6W ML=1.7 NCSN WSW of Gilroy, CA
O: 2MAY2002 04:51:44 37.0N 121.6W ML=3.1 NCSN SSW of Gilroy, CA

O: 2MAY2002 06:19:34 40.2N 123.2W ML=2.6 NCSN N of Covelo, CA

O: 2MAY2002 10:39:59 31.9N 116.1W ML=2.1 SCSN S of Ocotillo, CA

O: 2MAY2002 15:17:18 34.3N 118.5W ML=1.4 SCSN N of Granada Hills, CA

O: 2MAY2002 15:56:39 40.4N 124.2W ML=2.4 NCSN NNE of Petrolia, CA

O: 2MAY2002 16:14:00 37.6N 121.6W ML=1.5 NCSN ESE of Livermore, CA

O: 3MAY2002 01:17:53 33.0N 118.5W ML=2.7 SCSN ESE of San Clemente Is., CA (N

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 1MAY2002 21:02:33 48.9N 122.2W ML=1.1 PNSN NNW of Deming, WA

O: 2MAY2002 02:26:31 47.8N 122.8W ML=1.8 PNSN NW of Poulsbo, WA

O: 2MAY2002 17:36:47 45.0N 122.5W ML=2.2 PNSN SSE of Canby, OR

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 30APR2002 07:21:37 42.1N 111.7W ML=1.8 UUSN NE of Franklin, ID

O: 30APR2002 13:26:41 41.1N 112.9W ML=2.1 UUSN SSW of Lakeside, UT
O: 30APR2002 15:20:07 41.1N 112.9W ML=2.1 UUSN SSW of Lakeside, UT

O: 30APR2002 15:56:34 44.8N 111.1W ML=2.3 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 30APR2002 18:14:57 44.8N 111.1W ML=2.3 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT

O: 1MAY2002 07:55:47 39.5N 110.9W ML=2.2 UUSN SW of Price, UT

O: 2MAY2002 05:41:19 43.3N 110.6W MD=2.9 USBR E of Hoback Jct, WY

O: 26APR2002 08:34:32 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.3 MBMG Hebgen Lake region

O: 26APR2002 21:23:27 46.9N 113.0W ML=1.3 MBMG near Helmville

O: 27APR2002 00:28:36 44.9N 111.7W ML=1.6 MBMG S Gravelly Range

O: 27APR2002 12:22:57 44.6N 112.3W ML=1.1 MBMG near Monida
O: 27APR2002 20:59:47 44.7N 112.0W ML=1.0 MBMG E Centennial Valley

O: 30APR2002 15:56:34 44.8N 111.1W ML=2.3 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 29APR2002 13:43:28 44.8N 111.1W ML=2.8 MBMG Hebgen Lake region; UUSS

O: 30APR2002 11:20:10 44.5N 112.9W ML=1.4 MBMG SW of Lima
O: 29APR2002 16:57:44 44.5N 113.1W ML=2.1 MBMG NW of Nicholia, ID

O: 30APR2002 14:05:08 44.9N 111.5W ML=1.7 MBMG S Madison Valley
O: 30APR2002 10:32:31 44.8N 111.6W ML=1.0 MBMG S Madison Valley

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

ALASKA

O: 2MAY2002 06:05:02 56.8N 144.1W ML=3.3 PGC SW Yakutat AK

HAWAII