Don in Creepy Town is having a good day!!

In addition to the Whakatane earthquake, there was a moderate quake near another of Don's
Forecast epicenters this morning. Don had forecast an event at:

F: 29APR2002 +/-2day 31.8N 115.8W Ml 3.0-4.5 (65 km radius)

SCSN is listing the following event:

O: 29APR2002 12:24:41 32.0N 115.0W ML=4.1 . SSW of Yuma, AZ

This is just at the edge of Don's 65 km radius limit, however the quality is "C" for the
Epicentral determination and the aftershock is better located to the west of this, so it is
Likely that this event occurred well within the 65 km radius. The Ml 4.1 is certainly
Within the forecast magnitude range and the earthquake occurred on the day expected.
It appears to be a successful forecast in all regards - a HIT.

I guess that in the extended southern California contest, Don appears to be the
Winner in naming the date and location of the first Ml>=3. But in the more restricted
SCSN southern California region, we are still waiting for a winner as no Ml>=3
Quake has yet occurred in that area.

Don's Original Forecast had been:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15227.html

Lazare Cardenas, Baja Earthquake Forecast (3.0-4.5)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 25, 2002 at 19:06:17:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.5
From: 04/27/2002UTC - To: 05/01/2002UTC
Location: Lazare Cardenas, Baja
Lat: 31.8N - Long: 115.8W - Range: 65Km

Hi All. Going south of the border for this one. Looking for a 3.0 to 4.5 at 31.1N/115.8W. This is about 50Km north of Lazare Cardenas, Baja.

Should occur 04/29/2002. The window will open on 04/27/2002 and will close on 05/01/2002.

The radius for this will be 65Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town

• Earthquakes in Southern California